Currency Updates:
The Australian Dollar (AUD): AUD ignored the JPY strength throughout Europe and NY session. The pair remained bid as USD was generally soft and emerging currencies maintained their upward tone. AUD/USD pushed from near 0.9290 towards 0.9340, a slight pulled back and dip was bought again in NY, cracking the 0.9350 resistance and stops were run to a high of 0.9360. April Westpac consumer confidence index & change data are due later. Solid readings likely keep bulls in charge.
AUD/USD: With the AUD above the 61.8 Fib of 0.9758-0.8660 & day/week RSIs still providing positive momentum bulls are gaining confidence. They will be targeting late November high near 0.9450. A possible 0.9400 barrier & the looming OZ jobs report may temper the rally’s pace but for now it looks set to persist.
EUR/USD: The pair rallied on the back of USD weakness from 1.3741 open to a high of 1.3811. Intra day stops and options expires at 1.3750 & 1.3800 helped the pair pushed higher in NY session. However, offshore EUR/USD offers ahead of the 21-DMA helped cap the rally. ECB comments from last left the door opened for unconventional measures but needed more confirmation.
USD/JPY: The continuation of the post NFP made short USD/JPY relentless and even accelerated faster in London and NY session. The pair triggered stops below 102.90 and 102.64, by Fibo, Tenkan & Kijun lines. It broke the daily cloud base at 102.06, local bids at 102 and more stops at 101.90 and below the March 27th swing low at 101.71. The Nikkei collapsed overwhelmed fairly stead USDJPY yield spreads and nearly unchanged US stocks. For now, 101.20, March lows and weekly Kijun, looks crucial. If that get taken out, then we will only be left with 200 DMA and the up TL from last June lows in the 100.70.
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 22:45 NZ Electronic Card Retail Sales m/m Mar 0.90%-prev
• 22:45 NZ Elec Card Retail Sales y/y Mar 5.70%-prev
• 00:30 AU Consumer Sentiment Apr -0.70%-prev
• 01:30 AU Housing Finance Feb f/c 2.00%, 0.00%-prev
• 01:30 AU Invest Housing Finance Feb -3.30%-prev
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• : JP BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target
• : JP BOJ Monetary Policy Statement
• : JP BOJ Announces Monetary Policy
