Currency Updates:
The Australian Dollar (AUD): Europe session tested and pierced the last November high of 0.9448. The pair then drifted a bit lower to near 0.9435 as USD/JPY made a run towards 102 after better than f/c unemployment claim. The pair tested the hourly support but USD bears emerged across the board at that point. The AUD therefore, rebounded back above 0.9420 and spent most of the session around there. China March inflation data is due later, A soft result may see more AUD longs unwind.
AUD/USD: While the long term trend is bullish and short term warnings are extant. The rally stalled at the base of the weekly cloud, daily RSI is deeply overbought and retail accounts (contrarian) short positions have been reduced. Spread widening has stalled as well. A pullback for the pair may be in order. Decent support sits in the 0.9300/20 & 0.9205/25 zones.
EUR/USD: The pair slipped from high of 1.3875 to 1.3854 as USD/JPY tried to rally back above 102 after a better than expected jobless claim. However, the market did not further react to this data and had their eyes on the heavy bond yields and bearish USD sentiment returned again. Bulls pushed the pair through 76.4 Fib of 1.3967-1.3672 and hit a high of 1.3900 before profit taking kicked in. Daily & Weekly RSIs remain biased up, if 1.3900-20 area fully breaks then its more likely bulls retest 1.4000 level.
USD/JPY: Both USD/JPY and Nikkei futures broke below their up TLs off the ’14 lows o/n. The Nikkei then fell through its March lows. Japanese importers are heavy bidders at 101.20, March low and into 101 and 100.80, though the 200-DMA is at 100.81 and the up trendline from last June was 100.90.
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 22:45 NZ Food Price Index Mar-1.00%-prev
• 23:50 JP Corp Goods Price MM Mar f/c 0.10%, -0.20%-prev
• 23:50 JP Corp Goods Price YY Mar f/c 1.70%, 1.80%-prev
• 01:30 CN PPI YY Mar f/c -2.20%, -2.00%-prev
• 01:30 CN CPI YY Mar f/c 2.50%, 2.00%-prev
• 01:30 CN CPI MM Mar f/c -0.50%, 0.50%-prev
• 03:00 NZ RBNZ Offshore Holdings Mar 61.90%-prev
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• 23:50 JP BOJ minutes of March policy-setting meeting
