Currency Updates:
The Australian Dollar (AUD): The pair opened around 0.9360 in NY session, a few pips below last night’s close, relatively tight ranges been played of 0.9333/80. Technical traders buying the bounce off the 200-HMA, AUD/JPY buying started the Aussie in Sydney last night. Some AUD/CAD buying from macro accounts after the BoC downgraded growth forecast. AUD/USD headed to close near 0.9375.
AUD/USD: Pivot at 0.9325. Support at 0.9325, 0.9290 and 0.9250. Resistances at 0.9425, 0.9460 and 0.9495. Range trading still in play, for AUD bears, a break of 0.9325 is needed for more confirmation on the downside.
EUR/USD: Decent industrial production data helped the EUR/USD rally, however push was limited by the 200 HMA at 1.3808ish despite repeated attempts lower. Liquidity is drying up as the holiday weekend approaches and as most traders don’t find EUR all that compelling right here.
USD/JPY: After six straight failed attempts to push the pair lower, bears finally gave up and the USD/JPY finally pushed back above 102 with the help of recovered Nikkei. USD/JPY has run into the daily cloud base and the 38.2% of the April wide by 102.39 today. The cloud base drifted up to 102.48 next week and stops are noted above 102.50. Limited pullbacks gave confidence to the bulls, daily Tenkan & 50% of the April slide are by 102.73, with the Kijun at 102.67.
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 19:30 Apr TR Tankan prev 18
• 22:00 NZD Mar Job Ads 3.7% previous
• 23:50 JPY Japan Buying of Foreign Bonds –Y380.5b prev
• 23:50 JPY Japan Buying of Foreign Stocks Y94.7b prev
• 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying of Japan Bonds Y223.6b prev
• 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying of Japan Stocks –Y515.6b prev
• 23:50 JPY Mar Dept Store Sales y/y 3.0% y/y
• 01:00 NZD Apr Consumer Confidence -0.8 at 132 prev
• 01:30 AUD Mar New Vehicle Sales 0.1% m/m prev
• 01:30 AUD Mar New Vehicle Sales -3.5% y/y prev
• 01:30 RBA Mar F/X Transactions 369m prev
• 05:00 JPY Mar Consumer Confidence
• 05:30 JPY Mar Dept Store Sales y/y 3.0% prev
• 05:30 JPY Mar Tokyo Dept Store Sales y/y 3.9% prev
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• 00:30 BOJ Gov Kuroda speaks at Branch Managers’ Meeting
