Currency Updates:
The Australian Dollar (AUD): The pair rallied to a high of 0.9318 in early Europe session but stalled as offers into the 200-HMA & 21-DMA. AUD slid to 0.9275, start of NY session, EUR/AUD recovery and a better than f/c U.S pending home sales added pressure to AUD to a low of 0.9243. Little bounce was seen as heavy commodity & stocks weighed on risk. Late in the session the pair sat near 0.9255, further downside could be seen as event risk looms.
AUD/USD: Day/week RSIs weigh as yield spreads narrows. For now, the market will focus on the April low of 0.9205. A break there opens up a 200 & 55 DMA (0.9150/53) test.
EUR/USD: Europe spiked the pair up from below 1.3820 to a high of 1.3880. Talk was Russian banks were the culprits. U.S home sales data pressured the pair to 1.3840 but bounced back towards 1.3860 as market may now lean towards an above f/c EZ CPI on Wednesday after Draghi’s comments. For now, rising 10 & 21 DMA combine with bullish day/week RSIs to give bulls the upper hand.
USD/JPY: After four hours of knocking on the 200-DMA resistance by 102.40, USD/JPY finally got beyond it and some light buy stops, as well as light exporter offers at 102.50. The latter was cleared after the 10ET options cut and after better-than-expected US Pending Home Sales, which gave Tsy yields a lift. Nikkei futures had been doing the heavy lifting until then. In any event, the USD/JPY rally faltered into the London close as higher Tsy yields knocked back stocks and risk generally receded to the benefit of the yen. The hourly Cloud top caught that correction by 102.30. All eyes are on 102.73, the Apr 22 high, 50% of the Apr 4-11 slide and Kijun line, heading into Wed’s BOJ announcement/econ f/c & FOMC, among other event risks. Japan’s holiday Tuesday is likely to keep volumes depressed. EUR/JPY managed to take out last week’s high by 142, running light buy stops for a 2-pip piercing of the 61.8% of the Apr 3-8 slide at 142.18. A series of long-legged daily Candles and today’s close above the Cloud top & Kijun suggest markets believe today’s report that Draghi doesn’t see QE as a near-term prospect. AUD/JPY is perched on 94.50 Fibo support.
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 22:45 NZ Trade – Imports Mar f/c 4.10b, 3.74b-prev
• 22:45 NZ Trade Balance MM Mar f/c 937.0m, 818.0m-prev
• 22:45 NZ Trade Balance YY Mar f/c 0.92b, 0.65b-prev
• 22:45 NZ Trade – Exports Mar f/c 4.98b, 4.65b-prev
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No Significant Events
