Currency Updates:
The Australian Dollar (AUD): A test of 0.9205/25 support failed overnight, bears started to worry and took some early profits. Europe session came in, saw this as an opportunity and lifted the pair to near 0.9260-70 area. However, no further gains were seen as bears jumped in again and AUD/JPY was unable to break above the 200 HMA. With no data due from Oz, the market looks to the EZ CPI, FOMC and China PMI data.
AUD/USD: Overall still in a relatively bearish sentiment on the pair. A soft reading on China PMI would increase pressure on the AUD. For now, support still at 0.9205/25, a break would test 0.9170 and 0.9150. On the top side, 0.9320 resistances is still holding up.
EUR/USD: Monthly-end interest from corporates capped EUR/USD’s rally at 1.3880 overnight and the looming German HICP saw recent longs lightened up. The below f/c EZ CPI slammed the recent EUR rally back to 1.3800 area. Bids into 1.3800 and near the 21-DMA kept stops sub -1.38 for now. Market awaits for EZ CPI print tomorrow, a weak data could see 1.3780 support break and a test of cloud base 1.3722 could be tested.
USD/JPY: NY took the pair through April 22 high, 50% Fibo and Kijun line resistance at 102.73, but the effort was a futile one, as the day’s high of 102.79 followed quickly and fell shy of 102.84 daily cloud top. S&P and N225 futures held decent gains, limiting USD/JPY’s pullback to bids at 102.50. Tonight’s BOJ meeting is unlikely to mark a shift in policy, but hints about policy changes after a few months of post-tax-hike econ data have been digested may be contained in the semi-annual econ forecast from the bank.
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 22:45 NZ Building Consents Mar -1.70%-prev
• 23:15 JP Manufacturing PMI Apr 53.9-prev
• 23:50 JP Industrial output prelim mm Mar f/c 0.50%, -2.30%-prev
• 23:50 JP IP Forecast 1 Mth Ahead Mar 0.90%-prev
• 23:50 JP IP Forecast 2 Mth Ahead Mar -0.60%-prev
• 1:00 NZ NBNZ Business Outlook Apr 67.30%-prev
• 1:00 NZ NBNZ Own Activity Apr 58.20%-prev
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• 04:00 JP BOJ Interest rate decision
