Currency Updates:
The Australian Dollar (AUD): AUD/USD was posting a loss directly on the release of the Chinese data that came in the form of the Manufacturing PMI for the month of April came at 50.4 vs 50.5 expected, however returned back within a blink of an eye and is overall unchanged at 0.9285. The currency rose as high as US93.04¢ in late morning trade on Thursday after China’s official purchasing managers’ index inched higher to 50.4 in April. It was fetching US92.93¢ in afternoon trade. Expectations had been that the measure of manufacturing activity would rise to 50.5, but the slightly lower than expected outcome also didn’t point to a deepening slowdown.
AUD/USD: Current pivot at 0.9315, support at 0.9245, 0.9225 and 0.9210. Range trading is still the game plan, market awaits for NFP data for further movements.
EUR/USD: Early Europe session pushed the pair above 1.3880 resistance to a high of 1.3889. However, offers at 1.3900-05 capped bulls and the pair dropped back down below 1.3880. Current action will still be limited as market awaits for NFP. The ECB is hoping for a well above f/c result as the USD should firm and it relieves some pressure for the bank to act sooner than later. For now the broad 1.3670-1.3970 range remains.
USD/JPY A 24-pip range in USD/JPY in holiday-thinned trade and with conflicting US econ data du jour. Some lingering weight on Tsy yields and the USD due to the shock miss in GDP and today’s weak Construction Spending that implies GDP should be revised to negative. But ahead of NFP Fri there’s scant appetite for range-removal heroics. Hefty, nearby option expires further smother trading Thur, though the bulk of the expiries Friday are above 103 through 104.50. The 220k ADP and strong Claims sample weak for the NFP report suggest a decent result, even if the GDP downshift has soured the risk mood for now. S&P & N225 futures got back in synch o/n after the latter had lagged badly Wed, but weak Tsy yields since Wed’s NY open have largely offset the lift from the N225’s rebound. A post NFP daily close above the daily Cloud at 102.84 is needed to revive the USD/JPY uptrend. Pattern of higher swing lows since Feb is the downside focus, with the last low at 101.32 & by the up TL from last June’s low. GBP/JPY is threatening to rise out of its ascending triangle on back of firm UK data. Japan Jobs, Household Spending & weekly investment flows on tap tonight.
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:30 JP All Household Spding YY Mar f/c1.00%, -2.50%-prev
• 23:30 JP All household spending mm Mar f/c 5.20%, -1.50%-prev
• 23:30 JP Jobs/Applicants Ratio Mar f/c 1.06, 1.05-prev
• 23:30 JP Unemployment Rate Mar f/c 3.60%, 3.60%-prev
• 23:50 JP Foreign Bond Investment w/e -463.9b-prev
• 23:50 JP Foreign Invest JP Stock w/e 194.0b-prev
• 01:00 AU HIA New Home Sales m/m Mar 4.60%-prev
• 01:30 AU PPI QQ Q1 f/c 0.50%, 0.20%-prev
• 01:30 AU PPI YY Q1 f/c 2.10%, 1.90%-prev
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No Significant Events
