Currency Updates:
The Australian Dollar (AUD): AUD was generally bullish but was mostly pressured by the crosses, especially against EUR and CAD. Follow on from Draghi’s Thursday statement, EUR/AUD cleared 1.4710 support to retest 1.4690-95 while the weak CA jobs results pressed AUD/CAD up to the 30DMA near 1.0220. Little data due for the AUD this week, impact may affect the pair could come from external factors while the ECB rolls out numerous speakers and the US has a fairly full data due.
AUD/USD: Range trades still in play on the pair of 0.9345-0.9395. Current pivot of 0.9345 is still holding up the AUD, a break from there would test 0.93 level.
EUR/USD: The pair initially was holding just under 1.3850 for Asia and Europe session. Large options expired in the 1.37710-1.3810 zone put the bears back in as support line broke the April low. NY session then cracked the 1.3789 (daily cloud top, TL off July’s low) to test 1.3770. Little bounce was seen and the pair took another hit to 1.3745 low. Technical side shows extremely bearish as the weekly RSI diverged on the new high this week, a bearish engulfing candle forms on the weekly chart while the daily RSI is biased down and the daily cloud top is broken. A break of 21 MA looks likely. ECB members will be speaking this week, if they stand on the same side as Draghi then may further encourage bears to push EUR down further.
Yen Crosses: EURJPY was further dragged down by the ECB statement to the import support of 139-70-140 zone. The daily cloud base, 50% of the 136.25-143.29 rise and March-April lows were all removed near there and a close below it for the week is threatened. USDJPY remains in a holding pattern above a slew of historical support and the 200 DMA between 101.09 and 101.32, with local bids fighting of what appears to be steady long liquidation by specs into rallies since the turn of the year.
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 22:00 NZ REINZ HPI MM Apr 3.40%-prev
• 22:00 NZ REINZ HPI Year Ago Apr 9.20%-prev
• 22:45 NZ Food Price Index Apr -0.30%-prev
• 01:30 AU NAB Business Conditions Apr 1-prev
• 01:30 AUNAB Business Confidence Apr 4-prev
• 23:50 JP Bank Lending YY Apr 2.10%-prev
• 23:50 JP Current Account NSA JPY Mar f/c 305.0b, 612.7b-prev
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• 05:00 JP Economy Watchers Poll Apr
