Easy-Forex Daily Outlook

June 13, 2014

Currency Updates:

EUR/USD – under pressure

The pair has validated a falling wedge pattern and has broken below the 200-day moving average. Moreover, the daily RSI is badly directed and not oversold. Further weakness is therefore expected below 1.3780 with 1.3450 as a first target (previous overlap) and 1.33 in extension (November 2013 low and strong LT support). A third target is set at 1.31 (September 2013 low). Only a break above 1.3780 (horizontal resistance) will turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at 1.40 (last top) and a second one set at 1.4245 (OCtober 2011 top).

AUD/USD Intraday: towards 0.948.

Pivot

0.9400

Our preference

Long positions above 0.94 with targets @ 0.946 & 0.948 in extension.

Alternative scenario

Below 0.94 look for further downside with 0.9365 & 0.9335 as targets.

Comment

The immediate trend remains up and the momentum is strong.

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index decreased 0.46% or 25.196pts to 5428.8 (day range: 5452 – 5423) on Thursday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5474) and below its 50d MA (@ 5460). 38% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 48% the previous session) and 47% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 54%).

Australia’s unemployment rate was 5.8% in May (as expected, unchanged from April) and recorded 4.8K net decrease in employment in May (vs +10.0K expected, +10.3K in April). The participation rate was 64.6% in May (64.7% expected) vs 64.7% in April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

New Zealand’s central bank has raised the official cash rate by 25 bps to 3.25%.

Economic Releases

BZ 13:30: Apr Economic Activity MoM, exp.: 0.12%
US 14:30: May PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, exp.: 0.1%
US 15:55: Jun P Univ. of Michigan Conf., exp.: 83
AR 21:00: May National Urban CPI MoM, exp.: 1.6%
AR 21:00: May Wholesale Price Idx MoM

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