US stocks closed mixed overnight and Asian equities are trading almost flat this morning. Crude oil surged to monthly highs at 49.35 which has dragged USD/CAD much lower to 1.3015 levels from 1.34+ just a week ago. USD weakness is predominant in all currencies of the commodity bloc such as AUD and NZD which are helped by a surge in GOLD prices. GOLD surged to new highs at 1149. Next resistance is at 1170. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.05% to 95.48.
Yesterday, further weakness in US Economic data through lower than expected ISM manufacturing data. USD is under pressure as the jobs data on Friday underlined fears that a slowdown in global economic growth has spread to the US. As a result speculation as to the timing of the first interest hike is shifting to 2016. Watch out for any US economic releases to set the tone for the USD versus all other currencies.
Highlights for today are German and UK industrial production as well as US Crude Oil Inventories.
Trading quote of the day: “Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others.” – John Maynard Keynes
Currency Updates:
EURUSD
Pivot: 1.12
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.12 with targets @ 1.132 & 1.135 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.12 look for further downside with 1.117 & 1.1145 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
USDJPY
Pivot: 120.2
Likely scenario: Short positions below 120.35 with targets @ 119.75 & 119.45 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 120.35 look for further upside with 120.6 & 120.9 as targets.
Comment: The RSI advocates for further downside.
GBPUSD
Pivot: 1.517
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.517 with targets @ 1.529 & 1.533 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.517 look for further downside with 1.5135 & 1.5105 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.71
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.71 with targets @ 0.721 & 0.723 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.71 look for further downside with 0.705 & 0.702 as targets.
Comment: The RSI advocates for further upside.
GOLD
Pivot: 1135.5
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1135.5 with targets @ 1157 & 1165 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1135.5 look for further downside with 1130 & 1122.5 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
USDCAD
Pivot: 1.31
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.31 with targets @ 1.3 & 1.2955 in extension.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.
USDCHF
Pivot: 1.0945
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.0945 with targets @ 1.087 & 1.085 in extension.
Comment: As long as 1.0945 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
OIL
Pivot: 47.8
Likely scenario: Long positions above 47.8 with targets @ 50 & 50.8 in extension.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.
DAX
Pivot: 9380
Likely scenario: As long as 9380 is not broken down, we favour an upmove with 10200 and then 10500 as next targets.
Comment: The RSI is around its neutrality area at 50%
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