Good morning. So will it be economic gloom, doom or boom. The FOMC today begins its most anticipated meeting in 5 years, ahead of its interest rate announcement tomorrow.
The worlds financial markets have regressed into limbo as choppy, range bound markets, doing little to boost investor confidence. To illustrate the current uncertainty, yesterday’s German ZEW economic sentiment had literally no impact on the markets despite coming out significantly lower at 12.1 versus 18.3 expected.
The FED finds itself in a dilemma as there are so many variables to consider. The U.S economy is most definitely advancing in a positive manner and recent months data points towards a rate hike. On the other hand, there is the global growth concerns to consider and the possible knock on effect to the U.S.
Raising interest rates could result in a stronger dollar which in turn may impact on exports. Not raising interest rates, could be viewed as acknowledgement that all is not well, which may cause panic and volatility in the financial markets.
What is certain, the next 2 days will be extremely exciting and traders should maintain their accounts with sufficient equity to take advantage of market moves and protect open positions.
News wise today, watch out for Claimant Count Change and Average Earnings from the U.K at 08:30 GMT and Inflation data from the EZ at 09:00 GMT. Later in the U.S session we have CPI at 12:30 GMT.
Trading quote of the day: “Everyone has the brainpower to follow the stock market. If you made it through fifth-grade math, you can do it.” – Peter Lynch
USDCAD
Pivot: 1.321
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.321 with targets @ 1.3285 & 1.331 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.321 look for further downside with 1.3175 & 1.315 as targets.
Comment: The RSI advocates for further upside.
USDCHF
Pivot: 0.9695
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.9695 with targets @ 0.9765 & 0.9795 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.9695 look for further downside with 0.966 & 0.964 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
OIL
Pivot: 44.33
Likely scenario: Long positions above 44.33 with targets @ 45.46 & 45.88 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 44.33 look for further downside with 43.9 & 43.4 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
AX
Pivot: 10065
Likely scenario: Long positions above 10065 with targets @ 10340 & 10435 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 10065 look for further downside with 9881 & 9773 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.
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