The market focus today is on Bank of England rate decision and FOMC minutes release. In the UK, BoE is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.5% and show that the 9 members voted for as 8-1 for keeping rates unchanged over hiking them. The MPC members should be positive about the domestic development (especially about the labor market) but slightly worried about the global market turmoil and the slowdown in China. FOMC minutes should express some concern over the global developments as signaled by the soft tone by Janet Yellen at the press conference following the meeting.
In currency markets, majors continue trading in a tight range especially USDJPY and EURUSD. Central Bank cues should be needed in order for the 2 pairs to break out of their range. Commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD, NOK) are trading near their weekly highs, however the rally seems to have run out of steam.
WE shift our focus on FOMC and US jobless claims release for further direction.
Trading quote of the day: All trading results are insignificant unless it is your last.
USDCAD
Pivot: 1.302
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.302 with targets @ 1.31 & 1.314 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.302 look for further downside with 1.297 & 1.29 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.
USDCHF
Pivot: 0.9685
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.9685 with targets @ 0.9765 & 0.9795 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.9685 look for further downside with 0.964 & 0.96 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
OIL
Pivot: 49.7
Likely scenario: Short positions below 49.7 with targets @ 47.4 & 46.9 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 49.7 look for further upside with 50.8 & 51.66 as targets.
Comment: As long as 49.7 is resistance, likely decline to 47.4.
DAX
Pivot: 10090
Likely scenario: Short positions below 10090 with targets @ 9670 & 9572 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 10090 look for further upside with 10220 & 10320 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
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