We expect a ranging market today, due to the absence of market moving events, with only euro area consumer confidence the single news of interest.
Post FOMC we see a stronger USD backed by hawkish comments from the FED members that indicated either that their vote for a rate rise was close last Thursday, or that the FED should raise rates this year, instead of next which most market participants expected. Overnight action in Asia was muted due to a Japanese holiday.
EURUSD broke down the 1.1212 support and is trading at 1.1175 at time of writing. Key support is seen at 1.1165 and then 1.1080. GBPUSD still holds above 1.5475 key support and is trading at 1.5500. USDJPY rallied to 120.60 overnight with next resistance being 121.00. AUDUSD fell from 0.72 to 0.7120.
Meanwhile GOLD’s initial Bull Run after the FOMC is halted at 1139 with support levels being 1124.50 and 1116.
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USDCAD
Pivot: 1.317
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.317 with targets @ 1.331 & 1.335 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.317 look for further downside with 1.311 & 1.307 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
USDCHF
Pivot: 0.9655
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.9655 with targets @ 0.976 & 0.979 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.9655 look for further downside with 0.9625 & 0.9585 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
OIL
Pivot: 45.55
Likely scenario: Long positions above 45.55 with targets @ 47 & 47.64 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 45.55 look for further downside with 44.24 & 43.55 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
DAX
Pivot: 10075
Likely scenario: Short positions below 10075 with targets @ 9780 & 9640 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 10075 look for further upside with 10245 & 10340 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 10075 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 9780 remains high.
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