Euro tumbles after Cyprus bail-out

March 19, 2013

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Currency Updates:

Euro tumbles after depositors hit by Cyprus bail-out

 

The euro (EUR) dropped 150 pips against the US dollar (USD) opening at 1.2950 in the Asian session. The pair continues to slide moving below 1.2890 as European markets near opening time. The move comes after Friday night’s decision by European leaders, the IMF and the European Central Bank to tap into depositor’s money as part of the Cyprus bailout program. The troika of lenders has agreed to a figure of EUR 10 billion, to which the Cyprus government will add a further EUR 5.8 billion taken from Cyprus bank depositors. The original deal involved a cut of 6.75% on deposits less than EUR 100,000 and 9.99% on deposits above that amount. The deal is expected to be approved this afternoon in the Cyprus parliament. At the same time contagion fears about deposits safety spread in other periphery countries most notably, Spain and Italy.
  • Gold (XAU) moved higher against the background of a hit on depositors in a member of the Eurozone, as uncertainty over the euro looms and banks in the Eurozone open.
  • Weekly option volatilities for the EURUSD jumped from 9.00 to 11.50 as markets edge towards fear and push options’ premiums higher.

EURCHF

The euro (EUR) opened lower against the Swiss franc (CHF) at 1.2180 from 1.2270 of Friday as markets incorporate the news from Cyprus. Many investors expect a shift of deposits away from the euro and into safe haven assets such as gold and the Swiss franc.

OUTLOOK?

Pivot

Preference1

Sentiment2

EURUSD

1.2980

SHORT @ 1.2980

  • 51% of deals buy EUR

USDJPY

95.00

SHORT @ 95.00

  • 42% of deals buy USD

GBPUSD

1.5065

LONG @ 1.5065

  • 67% of deals buy GBP

AUDUSD

1.0395

LONG @ 1.0395

  • 53% of deals buy AUD

GOLD

1590

LONG @ 1590

  • 74% of deals buy GOLD

OIL

91.90

LONG @ 91.90

  • 73% of deals buy OIL

US 500

1549

SHORT @ 1549

  • 20% of deals buy US 500

UK 100

6385

LONG @ 6385

  • 21% of deals buy UK 100

1data generated by Trading Central™, 2data obtained from easy-forex Inside Viewer™

CALENDAR?

Currency

Time (GMT)

Event

Forecast

EUR

10:00

Italian Trade Balance

2.11B

EUR

11:00

European Trade Balance

10.4B

CAD

13:30

Foreign Securities Purchases

7.85B

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