FOREX Trading Australia – Foreign Exchange Market Summary
Dollar
- Dollar remained under pressure as the market awaits the Trade Balance data released today (). An increase in deficit is expected as imports are rising while high oil prices are increasing costs. With the market also eyeing the minutes from FOMC’s meeting () with a hawkish tone expected from all members, the Dollar could see some interesting price action.
Euro
- The Euro briefly broke above 1.30 helped by position squaring before stabilizing around 1.2975. Data continues to be weak from the zone with French Manufacturing and Industrial Production declining as domestic demand and export orders remain soft, needless to say high oil prices and a stronger Euro are working against it. In the EU Finance ministers meeting, concern has been expressed on high oil prices and the currency volatility seen in recent times.
Yen
- The Yen rallied on easing of oil prices, better than expected data and also on profit taking on shorts ahead of key
U.S.
Pound
- The Pound was boosted by a larger than expected decline in the Trade Deficit while the BRC Retail Sales monitor rose to its fastest level in six months. PPI increased in line with expectations while House prices surprised to the upside. It managed to break above 1.89 with 1.8940-55 the next resistance zone to overcome while decent support has moved up to 1.8825-40.
Australian Dollar
- The Australian dollar rallied strongly towards 0.7755 where decent sized offers have stalled further gains for now. It was helped by the general uncertainty around the Greenback as well as surge in home loans with local housing market showing signs of stabilizing. Bids have moved up to 0.7690 with rise in commodities also helping the Aussie.
Economic Data Released
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Actual |
Outcome |
|
|
|
February Industrial Production |
|
0.2% |
-0.5% |
Has fallen on higher energy prices and weak domestic spending. |
|
|
|
March PPI Input m/m |
|
0.1% |
1.8% |
Has risen on general increase in energy costs |
|
|
|
February Trade Balance |
|
-5174 Mn |
-4809 Mn |
Has fallen on decline in imports. |
|
Upcoming Economic Releases
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Forecast |
Expectation |
|
|
February Trade Balance |
|
-931Mn |
-1250Mn |
Exports have fallen while high oil prices have increased import costs. |
|
|
February Trade Balance |
|
-$58.3Bn |
-$59.0Bn |
Imports continue to rise with spike in oil prices increasing costs. |
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.2907 and high was 1.3002.
The pair closed at 1.2977.
Prospect of poor
Key resistance is seen at 1.3025 followed by 1.3175 while support starts at 1.2925 followed by 1.2845.
USD/JPY – Yesterday’s low was 107.60 and high was 108.50.
The pair closed at 107.60.
It broke below Dollar bids around 107.75 with strong bids around 107.50 holding well for now. A break below would bring into focus the strong support zone of 106.90-107.10. On the upside resistance is strong around 108.50 with any foray towards the 108.85-109.10 zone likely to lead to profit taking.
Key Resistance is seen at 108.55 followed by 109.15 while support starts at 107.45 followed by 106.90.
GBP/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.8813 and high was 1.8932.
The pair closed at 1.8915.
The resistance zone at 1.8855-70 was broken above and it managed to rally towards 1.8930, 1.8940-55 is the next strong resistance zone with a break above bringing 1.9015 into focus which might lead to some profit taking. On the downside a break below 1.8855 could accelerate losses down to 1.8750-75 where decent buying interest exists.
Key Resistance is seen at 1.8955 followed by 1.9025 while support starts at 1.8855 followed by 1.8775.
Australian Dollar
AUD/USD – Yesterday’s low was 0.7710 and high was 0.7756.
The pair closed at 0.7753.
The Aussie has rallied on good data and increase in metal prices, a decisive break above 0.7755 brings into focus 0.7790-0.7810 with movements directed by
Key Resistance is seen at 0.7775 followed by 0.7825 while support starts at 0.7695 followed by 0.7655.
Kunal ‘Kris’ Sharma
Forex Analyst
Australian Financial Services License 246566
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