FOREX Trading Australia – Foreign Exchange Market Summary
Dollar
· Dollar slipped further as deficit as expected widened further but stayed below the $60 Bn mark which would have triggered broad based Dollar selling. Imports continued to surge as does the imbalance with
Euro
· The Euro has closed strongly above 1.3450 but was unable to break above 1.3490 with strong option barriers and offers cited above that region. Any foray above 1.35 would also start a round of Euro-Zone’s officials expressing their concern on the high Euro. Earlier the zone’s Current Account surplus showed an increase for the second consecutive month.
Yen
· The Yen remained within its recent range against the Greenback as Dollar bids in the 103.50-75 continue to hold firm. But the Yen is close to that region and a decisive break below could accelerate its gains. Earlier Consumer Confidence improved slightly while Bank of Japan is expected to upwardly revise its assessment of the economy in its monthly report.
Pound
· The Pound came off strongly after dipping below 1.92 as buying interest is strong on any dips towards 1.9175 but for now stiff resistance exists in the 1.9335-50 zone. The market is hoping for a rate hike in the near to mid term horizon but that is dependant on the data outcome as the economy continues to project mixed signals. Today’s PPI and House Price data is eyed.
Australian Dollar
· The Australian dollar continues its battle to break past 0.80 but very strong support exists around 0.7850 with the market eager to buy on any dips below 0.79. Housing Finance gained against expectations, this adds another case for a rater hike in next month’s meeting.
Economic Data Released
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Actual |
Outcome |
|
|
|
January Housing Finance |
|
1.2% |
0.5% |
Higher than expected, another case for a rate hike. |
|
|
|
February Consumer |
|
47.4 |
47.6 |
Slight increase as economy slowly recovers |
|
|
|
January Trade Balance |
|
-$56.4Bn |
-$58.3 |
Imports continue to rise. |
|
Upcoming Economic Releases
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Forecast |
Expectation |
|
|
January Retail Sales
|
|
-0.4% |
0.7% |
Sales should increase on post holiday discount sales. |
|
|
January Industrial Production |
|
-0.8% |
0.4% |
Expected to increase slightly on better domestic demand |
|
|
January ODPM |
|
10.7% |
10.2% |
Should continue on its downward trend |
FOREX Technical Analysis
EUR/USD – Friday’s low was 1.3394 and high was 1.3479.
The pair closed at 1.3464.
Reaction to
Key resistance is seen at 1.3495 followed by 1.3555 while support starts at 1.3370 followed by 1.3275.
USD/JPY – Friday’s low was 103.71 and high was 104.28.
The pair closed at 103.95.
The Yen continues to be held off from the 103.50-75 zone with strong Dollar bids in that region. Since sentiment is against the Greenback any foray above 104.50 should continue to attract selling interest. A break below targets 102.90-103 where good support exists. 105.25 holds very stiff resistance.
Key Resistance is seen at 104.75 followed by 105.25 while support starts at 103.55 followed by 102.90.
GBP/USD – Friday’s low was 1.9163 and high was 1.9291.
The pair closed at 1.9253.
The pair faces stiff resistance around 1.9340-55 and for now any foray in that zone is bringing in selling interest. A clear break above brings 1.9425 resistance mark into focus. On the down side good buying interest exists on dips towards 1.9160-75 with a break below bringing the strong support zone of 1.9050-65 into play.
Key Resistance is seen at 1.9315 followed by 1.9375 while support starts at 1.9175 followed by 1.9115.
Australian Dollar
AUD/USD – Friday’s low was 0.7873 and high was 0.7954.
The pair closed at 0.7927.
The Aussie has solid support above 0.7850 with good buying interest on any move towards 0.7875. A break below 0.7850 brings even stronger support above 0.78. On the upside 0.7950 continues to hold mild resistance while option barriers are laced till 0.80 which continues to be the very stiff resistance mark.
Key Resistance is seen at 0.7985 followed by 0.8025 while support starts at 0.7875 followed by 0.7845.
Kunal ‘Kris’ Sharma
Forex Analyst
Australian Financial Services License 246566
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