FOREX Trading Australia – Foreign Exchange Market Summary
Dollar
- Dollar’s price action was similar to the day before as it slipped initially on disappointing Retail sales outcome but reversed the losses soon after. This shows the markets attention is focused more on the short term positive cyclical factors in the Greenback’s favour. Oil prices eased further as crude oil stocks rose while the market awaits the U.S. TIC’s data released tomorrow.
Euro
- The Euro is failing to take advantage of poor
U.S.
Yen
- The Yen extended it gains helped by the fall in oil prices while the CPI increased more than expected on surge in energy and commodity prices. In spite of the cut in fuel demand providing another supporting factor for the Yen, the economy remains sluggish and the direction remains mixed. EU finance ministers renewed their call for Asian currencies to appreciate. For now, strong Dollar bids lie in the 106.90-107.10 zone.
Pound
- The Pound continued to be held back from the stiff resistance zone at 1.8940-55 as data disappointed with the Unemployment rate inching higher, Jobless claims rose while wage growth increased less than estimated. It has found a good base in the 1.8860-75 region with the market looking to buy on dips.
Australian Dollar
- The Australian dollar briefly broke above 0.78 on poor
U.S. Australia U.S.
Economic Data Released
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Actual |
Outcome |
|
|
|
March CPI m/m |
|
0.5% |
0.6% |
Has increased on higher energy prices |
|
|
|
March Unemployment Rate |
|
2.6% |
2.7% |
An unexpected rise with jobless claims rising. |
|
|
|
March Retail Sales |
|
0.5% |
0.3% |
Sales have declined against expectations with high oil prices playing its part but spending should pick up. |
|
Upcoming Economic Releases
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Forecast |
Expectation |
|
|
4Q GDP q/q |
Euro-Zone |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Could be slightly revised down. |
|
|
February Business Inventories |
|
0.9% |
0.5% |
Increased sales would see a decline inventories with levels remaining steady. |
FOREX Technical Analysis
EUR/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.2849 and high was 1.2953.
The pair closed at 1.2906.
The pair is still lacking a decisive direction with TIC’s data on Friday the next focus. For now, good support is expected to come up around 1.2855. A break below could accelerate losses down to the strong support zone around 1.2775-1.28. On the upside mild resistance exists around 1.2950 with very strong resistance in the 1.3000-15 zone.
Key resistance is seen at 1.2955 followed by 1.3025 while support starts at 1.2855 followed by 1.2775.
USD/JPY – Yesterday’s low was 107.14 and high was 107.79.
The pair closed at 107.31.
It broke below the first support line with 106.90-107.05 the next strong support zone. A break below brings into focus 106.55 which holds strong Dollar bid interest. On the upside resistance is seen around 107.90 with any foray towards 108.50 likely to see some profit selling. .
Key Resistance is seen at 107.90 followed by 108.55 while support starts at 107.15 followed by 106.55.
GBP/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.8872 and high was 1.8955.
The pair closed at 1.8935.
The pair see sawed with Dollar’s general direction and awaits U.S. TIC’s data. Support exists around 1.8835-55 with a break below likely to accelerate losses down to 1.8775 where buyers should come up. On the upside resistance is strong in the 1.8955-70 zone with any foray towards 1.9015 likely to lead to profit taking on longs.
Key Resistance is seen at 1.8975 followed by 1.9025 while support starts at 1.8855 followed by 1.8775.
Australian Dollar
AUD/USD – Yesterday’s low was 0.7742 and high was 0.7804.
The pair closed at 0.7769.
The Aussie is locked within a narrow range with 0.7725 bringing up good bid interest while offers are strong around 0.78. Cue is taken from other majors for a decisive breakout with U.S. TIC’s data eyed on Friday. A break below 0.77 should bring up good bid interest around 0.7675 while any foray above 0.7825 should lead to profit taking.
Key Resistance is seen at 0.7805 followed by 0.7845 while support starts at 0.7725 followed by 0.7675.
Kunal ‘Kris’ Sharma
Forex Analyst
Australian Financial Services License 246566
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