FOREX Trading Australia – Foreign Exchange Market Summary
Dollar
· Dollar gave up its post TIC’s gains as the Current Account deficit went to a new record. In spite of the Dollar’s steady decline over the last couple of years, deficit refuses to ease. OPEC announced an increase in production but the market remains unconvinced that this would satisfy the ever increasing demand thus sending Oil prices to new record highs.
Euro
· The Euro went back above 1.34 helped by weak
Yen
· The Yen remained within its recent range against the Greenback as Dollar bids below 104 are holding firm for now. 103.50 is the strong support mark to break for the Yen but high oil prices are keeping it under pressure on its crosses. The Japanese government kept its assessment of the economy unchanged and is confident for the economy to maintain a path of steady recovery.
Pound
· The Pound has found good base around 1.91 with buying interest strong on any dips below that mark, and it managed to rally back towards 1.93 on solid employment data and the positive reaction on the
Australian Dollar
· The Australian dollar keeps getting pushed back towards 0.7950 as its positives outweigh the Greenback’s. In spite of the Dollar on the back foot the Aussie is failing to break above 0.80 which could hit it hard, if speculators look to liquidate their record long positions. For now strong support continues in the 0.7860-75 zone.
Economic Data Released
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Actual |
Outcome |
|
|
|
February Unemployment |
|
2.6% |
2.6% |
As expected rate unchanged continues to be at low levels. |
|
|
|
February CPI m/m |
Euro-Zone |
-0.6% |
0.3% |
Spike in oil and energy prices increases inflation |
|
|
|
February Industrial Production |
|
0.0% |
0.3% |
Has increased on auto production. |
|
Upcoming Economic Releases
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Forecast |
Expectation |
|
|
February Retail |
|
0.9% |
0.1% |
End of post holiday discount sales could lower sales. |
|
|
January Industrial Production |
Euro-Zone |
0.5% |
1.2% |
Increase in orders from across the zone is likely to boost Production. |
|
|
February Leading |
|
-0.3% |
0.1% |
Should rebound on positive factors since start of the year. |
FOREX Technical Analysis
EUR/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.3290 and high was 1.3438.
The pair closed at 1.3415.
It is back above 1.34 with the next strong resistance at 1.3485-1.3510 zone. It could dips back down to 1.3325 but buying interest is strong on any dips below 1.33. 1.3250-75 is the strong support mark but a break below brings 1.3190 support mark into focus.
Key resistance is seen at 1.3485 followed by 1.3525 while support starts at 1.3250 followed by 1.3185.
USD/JPY – Yesterday’s low was 103.89 and high was 104.68.
The pair closed at 104.23.
The Yen continues to be held off from the 103.50-75 zone with strong Dollar bids in that region. Since sentiment is against the Greenback any foray above 105 should continue to attract selling interest. 105.50 holds very stiff resistance.
Key Resistance is seen at 104.95 followed by 105.55 while support starts at 103.75 followed by 103.30.
GBP/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.9110 and high was 1.9291.
The pair closed at 1.9277.
The Pound has rallied well but could see some profit selling on moves above 1.93; 1.9345-60 is the strong resistance zone to breach. But support is strong around 1.9150 while any dips below 1.91 should bring in strong buying interest.
Key Resistance is seen at 1.9345 followed by 1.9395 while support starts at 1.9175 followed by 1.9115.
Australian Dollar
AUD/USD – Yesterday’s low was 0.7881 and high was 0.7955.
The pair closed at 0.7945.
The Aussie has solid support above 0.7850 with good buying interest on any move towards 0.7875. A break below 0.7850 brings into focus the strong support zone of 0.7810-25. On the upside 0.7950 continues to hold mild resistance while option barriers are laced till 0.80 which continues to be the very stiff resistance mark.
Key Resistance is seen at 0.7975 followed by 0.8015 while support starts at 0.7855 followed by 0.7805.
Kunal ‘Kris’ Sharma
Forex Analyst
Australian Financial Services License 246566
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