FOREX Trading Australia – Foreign Exchange Market Summary
Dollar
- The Dollar reversed some of its losses for the week as the Philly Fed index came in much higher than expected with all sub indices increasing. Jobless claims witnessed it largest weekly drop in more than 3 years however leading indicators recorded its largest fall in 2 years but it was largely due to the spike in oil prices and on seasonal factors.
Euro
- The Euro slipped back after encountering the key resistance mark around 1.3115, good
U.S.
Yen
- The Yen rallied across the board on the back of Greenspan’s comments as he was very vocal in terms of the Yuan revaluation issue stating that its continuation of the peg to the Dollar would be detrimental for the Chinese economy in the future. With so much talk on this issue since start of the year, concrete steps in this direction looks likely before the end of the year. This morning?s Tertiary Index declined but a little less than estimated although expectations are for an improvement as the year progresses.
Pound
- The Pound slipped as Retail sales outcome surprised to the downside with the market taking profits and sending it below 1.91. This result has been a substantial blow for sections of the market expecting a rate hike in the near term while close proximity of the general elections are highlighting any soft spots in the economy. The market is eyeing today?s GDP data which is expected to be soft with resistance strong around 1.92.
Australian Dollar
- The Australian dollar remains confined to its narrow range with resistance around 0.7775 and decent selling interest on any foray above 0.78. Buyers should come up on any dips down to 0.7675-0.77 with focus on local inflation data next week. The Aussie?s slow movements also emanates from the mixed direction for commodity prices.
FOREX Market – Economic Data Released
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Actual |
Outcome |
|
|
|
March Retail Sales m/m |
|
0.2% |
-0.1% |
An unexpected outcome making overall picture for the economy very mixed |
|
|
|
March Leading |
|
0.1% |
-0.4% |
Consumers worried about high oil prices. |
|
|
|
Philly Fed Manufacturing |
|
11.4 |
25.3 |
All sub indices increasing and report showing solid strength. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Upcoming Economic Releases
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Forecast |
Expectation |
|
|
March Q1 GDP |
|
0.7% |
0.6% |
Consumer spending has decline in the new year while other sectors remain mixed |
|
|
February Industrial New Orders |
Euro-Zone |
8.5% |
7.7% |
Domestic demand remains suppressed while export orders have declined |
|
|
March CPI m/m |
|
0.4% |
0.5% |
Spike in oil and increase in other key commodities should increase inflation. |
*Only key potential market moving data is mentioned, for a detailed Economic Calendar please click on the ?Financial Calendar? link on the web-site.
FOREX Technical Analysis
EUR/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.3024 and high was 1.3133.
The pair closed at 1.3036.
Good
Key resistance is seen at 1.3125 followed by 1.3195 while support starts at 1.2985 followed by 1.2875.
USD/JPY ? Yesterday?s low was 106.67 and high was 107.42.
The pair closed at 106.84.
The pair finally broke below 107 but decent Dollar bids remain in the 106.50-75 region and is likely to push back into the 107 region with resistance having moved down to 107.50. Japanese data remains poor and the pair is likely to be locked in narrow range bound movements.
Key Resistance is seen at 107.45 followed by 107.95 while support starts at 106.45 followed by 105.85.
GBP/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.9061 and high was 1.9214.
The pair closed at 1.9076.
Unexpected poor data has seen the market taking profits from its recent rally sending it back below 1.91. Mild support exists around 1.9055 with a break below targeting the solid support zone of 1.8960-75. On the upside mild resistance exists around 1.9145-60 with very strong resistance and selling interest around 1.92.
Key Resistance is seen at 1.9155 followed by 1.9205 while support starts at 1.9025 followed by 1.8965.
Australian Dollar
AUD/USD – Yesterday’s low was 0.7734 and high was 0.7771.
The pair closed at 0.7752.
Dollar?s weakness helped it break back above 0.77 but resistance lies in the 0.7755-70 zone with a decisive break needed to rally towards 0.78; Strong resistance exists in the 0.7810-25 zone. On the downside it has found a good base around 0.7675-0.77 with the market looking to buy on any dips below 0.77.
Key Resistance is seen at 0.7775 followed by 0.7825 while support starts at 0.7705 followed by 0.7645.
Kunal ‘Kris’ Sharma
Forex Analyst
Australian Financial Services License 246566
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