FOREX Trading Australia – Market Summary
- Dollar remained within its range against all majors and failed to gain further as oil prices inched back above $50 pb with crude oil inventories falling unexpectedly. Since Greenspan has asserted that energy prices are to be watched to gauge the strength of the economy’s growth prospects, thus any signs of oil prices inching higher would offset the growing disparity between the
- The Euro is helped by hedge funds strong bids which are placed below 1.2550 for the main pair as below $50 for oil, this has stiffened Dollar’s gains for now. However, a break below 1.25 could accelerate losses for the Euro with March 29th French referendum on the EU constitution edging closer and the ‘No’ side still in the lead. Data continues to be below par with German IFO business climate index at around 2 year lows while Italian biz confidence slumped as well.
- The Yen had its now usual short rally on speculation of steps towards Yuan revaluation followed by paring back of its gains after comments of denial from Chinese officials and effectively ruled out any revaluation in the short term. This chain of strong comments from
- The Pound’s movements continue to be correlated with the Euro against the Greenback with profit taking and bottom pickers keeping it around 1.83. The downward revision to the GDP outcome was in line with expectations and was shrugged aside by the market as a fair bit of bad news form the
- The Aussie continues to show good resilience and remains above 0.76 and is hovering around the resistance mark at 0.7655. Decent real money demand has helped it prop higher but no decisive rally is expected from the Aussie and is likely to pull back.
Economic Data Released
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Actual |
Comment |
|
|
May IFO Biz climate survey |
|
93.3 |
92.9 |
Biz confidence continues to plummet on poor domestic demand. |
|
|
Q1 GDP |
|
0.7% |
0.5% |
Downward revision in line with expectations. |
|
|
April Durable Goods Orders |
|
-2.8% |
1.9% |
Higher than expected but decline in non transport durable goods orders |
Upcoming Economic Releases
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Forecast |
Comment |
|
|
Q1 GDP Preliminary |
|
3.1% |
3.7% |
Increase in consumption and robust employment sector would increase gdp |
|
|
Q1 Personal Consumption |
|
3.5% |
3.5% |
Consumption should remain strong. |
*Only key potential market moving data is mentioned, for a detailed Economic Calendar please click on the ‘Financial Calendar’ link on the web-site.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.2550 and high was 1.2618.
The pair closed at 1.2604.
Technical scenario remains the same as bottom pickers have failed to push it higher and promptly liquidated their positions. For now support exists in the 1.2525-45 support zone. With a break below 1.25 likely to accelerate losses as sentiment has turned against it in a strong way with
Key resistance is seen at 1.2645 followed by 1.2705 while support starts at 1.2545 followed by 1.2495.
USD/JPY – Yesterday’s low was 107.26 and high was 107.87.
The pair closed at 107.72.
The Yen managed to break back below Dollar bids around 107.55 with mild resistance around 108.25 and strong resistance exists around 108.75 for this pair with any break above 109.25 to lead to strong offers. On the downside, mild Dollar bids lie around 107.25 followed by decent buying interest on any move towards 106.75.
Key Resistance is seen at 108.25 followed by 108.75 while support starts at 107.25 followed by 106.75.
GBP/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.8247 and high was 1.8324.
The pair closed at 1.8312.
The Pound’s fundamentals remain on the weak side thus it continues to be offered on any minor rallies with resistance in the 1.8340-55 and very strong resistance around 1.84. On the downside, bottom pickers are keeping it around 1.83 with support in the 1.8225-40 region. Distant support is seen in the 1.8140-50 zone with mixed technical interest above that area.
Key Resistance is seen at 1.8355 followed by 1.8405 while support starts at 1.8245 followed by 1.8175.
AUD/USD – Yesterday’s low was 0.7582 and high was 0.7632.
The pair closed at 0.7628.
The pair targeted the strong support zone at 0.7530-45 but failed to break below as strong bids lie in that zone. A break below 0.75 pivot mark could accelerate losses. On the upside, 0.7640-55 now holds mild resistance with a break above bringing strong resistance around 0.7695
Key Resistance is seen at 0.7645 followed by 0.7695 while support starts at 0.7575. followed by 0.7515.
Kunal ‘Kris’ Sharma
Forex Analyst
E-mail: kris@easy-forex.com
Australian Financial Services License 246566
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