Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

July 13, 2015

Monday 13th July 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index increased 0.39% or 21.064pts to 5492.04 (day range: 5528.4 – 5478.3) on Friday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5549) and below its 50d MA (@ 5616). 24% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (unchanged from the previous session) and 18% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 20%). Australia’s home loans dropped 6.1% MoM in May vs +0.7% in April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

 

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was mixed against its U.S. counterparts on Friday. On the economic data front, US wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in May from an increase of 0.4% in April. (0.3% estimate).The euro was higher against its major pairs. In Europe, french industrial production increased 0.4% in May, as expected, after a 0.8% decline the month before. UK trade balance deficit narrowed to £0.4B in May from £1.83B in April.The Australian dollar was under pressure against its major Pairs.
Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1152 1.05 -7.82
GBP/USD 1,5519 0.90 -0.37
USD/JPY 122,77 1.18 2.57
EUR/CHF 1,0474 0.10 -12.82
EUR/JPY 136,9100 2.24 -5.36
EUR/GBP 0,7186 0.15 -7.47
AUD/NZD 1,1081 0.33 5.74
AUD/JPY 91,4090 1.17 -6.50
EUR/AUD 1,4978 1.08 1.15
USD/CAD 1,2681 -0.22 9.12
USD/CHF 0,9391 -0.93 -5.55
AUD/USD 0,7446 -0.01 -8.92
NZD/USD 0,6719 -0.36 -13.83

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/CHF – below a strong resistance

The pair struck against a strong resistance area at 0.954 and is ready to draw another leg down. The 0.954 is a key polarity level (former 2014-2015 support now acting as a resistance) and also the level of the 200-day moving average. In addition, the RSI struck against a strong resistance area and is reversing down. As a consequence, as long as 0.954 is resistance, a corrective move towards 0.906 (May bottom) and 0.885 (congestion area) is expected. Alternatively, a break above 0.954 would open the way towards 0.986 (April top) and even 2015 top at 1.024.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: break of a ST rising trendline support.

Pivot 0.7460
Our preference Short positions below 0.746 with targets @ 0.74 & 0.737 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.746 look for further upside with 0.75 & 0.7535 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
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