Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

July 15, 2015

Wednesday 15th July 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index gained 1.9% or 104.233pts to 5577.4 (day range: 5587.1 – 5498.4) on Tuesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5548) and below its 50d MA (@ 5604). 49% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 21% the previous session) and 35% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 20%).

Australia: The ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index declined to 107.0 in the week ended July 12 from 111.0 in the prior week.

Australia’s June business conditions was 11 (vs 6 in May) and business confidence was 10 (vs 8 in May), according to the National Australia Bank.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was lower against its U.S. counterparts on Tuesday. On the economic data front, U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.3% in June from an increase of 1% revised in April. (0.3% estimate). June import prices decreased -0.1% from an increase of 1.2% in May. U.S. business inventories rose 0.3% in May in-line with estimates. U.S. June small business optimism fell to 94.1 in June from 98.3 in May vs 98.5 expected.

The euro was lower against its major pairs. In Europe, euro-zone industrial production dropped 0.4%.in May after being flat a month earlier (revised from +0.1%). Economists anticipated a 0.2% rise. German consumer prices fell 0.1% in June in final estimation, as expected. German ZEW investor confidence index for expectations slid to 29.7 in July from 31.5 in June. UK consumer prices were flat in June on a yearly basis from a 0.1% increase the month before.

The Australian dollar was higher against its major Pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1007 0.05 -9.02
GBP/USD 1,5635 0.96 0.37
USD/JPY 123,38 -0.05 3.08
EUR/CHF 1,0407 -0.43 -13.36
EUR/JPY 135,8000 -0.01 -6.13
EUR/GBP 0,7040 -0.92 -9.35
AUD/NZD 1,1101 0.33 5.93
AUD/JPY 91,8960 0.53 -6.00
EUR/AUD 1,4778 -0.52 -0.21
USD/CAD 1,2738 -0.01 9.62
USD/CHF 0,9454 -0.50 -4.92
AUD/USD 0,7448 0.55 -8.89
NZD/USD 0,6709 0.22 -13.95

 

Currency Updates:

 

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

EUR/USD – pulling back

The pair is drawing a pullback above the strong 1.0810 horizontal support as the daily RSI lacks downward momentum. Then, as long as 1.0810 holds as a support, further advance is likely with 1.15 as a first target (previous top) and 1.1730 in extension (horizontal resistance). A third target is set at 1.19 (June 2010 low). Only a break below 1.081 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.0450 (March low) and 1.02 (horizontal support and overlap).

eur 15-7-15

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: rebound.

aud 15-7-15

 

Pivot 0.7410
Our preference Long positions above 0.741 with targets @ 0.75 & 0.753 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.741 look for further downside with 0.738 & 0.735 as targets.
Comment The RSI is well directed.

 

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