Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

July 16, 2015

Thursday 16th July 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index jumped 1.05% or 58.822pts to 5636.23 (day range: 5637.6 – 5576.9) on Wednesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5550) and above its 50d MA (@ 5600). 60% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 49% the previous session) and 43% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 35%).

Australia: The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.2 in July from 95.3 in June.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar rallied against its U.S. counterparts on Wednesday. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications fell -1.9% for the week ending July 10 compared to an increase of 4.6% in the week prior. US June Producer prices (PPI) gained 0.4% vs the 0.2% gain forecast. US Empire state manufacturing survey index increased to 3.86 in July after a -2.0% drop in June. Industrial production increased 0.3% in June from a decrease of -0.2 in May (0.2% estimate).The euro was mixed against its major pairs. In Europe, french consumer prices fell by 0.1% in June after a 0.2% increase the month before. Economists anticipated prices to be flat. In UK, jobless claims increased by 7K in June after a being down by 1.1K a month earlier (revised from -6.5K). Consensus anticipated a 9K drop. Unemployment rate was up to 5.6% for the March-May period from 5.5% in the previous period. It was expected to b e flat.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against its major Pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0946 -0.57 -9.52
GBP/USD 1,5639 0.02 0.40
USD/JPY 123,81 0.35 3.44
EUR/CHF 1,0422 0.19 -13.25
EUR/JPY 135,5200 -0.25 -6.32
EUR/GBP 0,6999 -0.59 -9.88
AUD/NZD 1,1184 0.75 6.72
AUD/JPY 91,3130 -0.70 -6.59
EUR/AUD 1,4841 0.49 0.22
USD/CAD 1,2921 1.52 11.19
USD/CHF 0,9521 0.77 -4.25
AUD/USD 0,7376 -1.02 -9.77
NZD/USD 0,6593 -1.82 -15.44

 

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

GBP/USD – rebound

The pair has rebounded above the strong support at 1.5170. Thus, as long as 1.5170 holds on the downside (horizontal support and overlap), further advance is likely with 1.5935 as a first target (June top) and 1.6190 in extension (61.8% retracement of the July 2014 to April down leg). A third target is set at 1.6525 (last September top). Only a break below 1.5170 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.4560 (horizontal support and April low) and a second one set at 1.4230 (May 2010 low).

gbp 16-7-15

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.

aud 16-7-15

Pivot 0.7430
Our preference Short positions below 0.743 with targets @ 0.733 & 0.73 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.743 look for further upside with 0.747 & 0.749 as targets.
Comment The RSI is badly directed. The pair has broken below a rising trend line.
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