Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

July 20, 2015

Monday 20th July 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index was flat on Friday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5561) and above its 50d MA (@ 5600).

Australia’s May leading index was 104.8 (vs 104.6 in April) and coincident index 108.5 (vs 108.2 in April), according to the New York-based Conference Board.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was higher against its U.S. counterparts on Friday. On the economic data front, US Housing Starts surged to 1174K in June from 1069K in May (1106K estimate). building permits increased to 1343K in June from 1250 in May. CPI increased 0.3% MoM in June in-line with estimates. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 93.3 in July vs 96.1 in June below the 96 estimate. 

The euro was mixed against its major pairs. In Europe, no major economic statistic were released on Friday.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against its major Pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0844 -0.29 -10.37
GBP/USD 1,5604 -0.03 0.17
USD/JPY 124,08 -0.05 3.67
EUR/CHF 1,0422 0.05 -13.26
EUR/JPY 134,5500 -0.33 -6.99
EUR/GBP 0,6949 -0.26 -10.53
AUD/NZD 1,1309 -0.51 7.92
AUD/JPY 91,5800 -0.38 -6.33
EUR/AUD 1,4692 0.00 -0.79
USD/CAD 1,2988 0.23 11.77
USD/CHF 0,9610 0.33 -3.35
AUD/USD 0,7381 -0.32 -9.71
NZD/USD 0,6526 0.20 -16.30

Currency Updates:

 

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/ZAR – rebound

The pair has rebounded above the strong support at 12.08 (pullback area of the Descending Triangle and 61.8% retracement of the May to June up move). In addition, the daily RSI is supported by a rising trend line. Thus, further advance is expected with next targets on the upside standing at 12.63 (previous top) and 12.97 (Fibonacci projection of the May to June up move). A third target is set at 13.18. Alternatively, a downside breakout of the 12.08 intermediary level would trigger a limited correction towards the 11.7 strong support (long-term rising trend line and ascending 200-day moving average) and towards the strong horizontal support at 11.35.

20-7-15 - zar

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: turning down.

20-7-15 - aud

Pivot 0.7435
Our preference Short positions below 0.7435 with targets @ 0.735 & 0.733 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7435 look for further upside with 0.7475 & 0.7495 as targets.
Comment The RSI is badly directed.
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