Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

July 29, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index was flat on Tuesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5575) and below its 50d MA (@ 5592).

Australia: The ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index edged up to 112.5 in the week ended July 26 from 111.8 a week earlier.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was mixed on Tuesday, rising against the EUR and JPY while falling against the CAD, AUD and GBP. On the US economic data front, the Consumer Confidence Index fell to 90.90 in July from 99.87 the prior period while the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 13 in July from 7 the prior month.

The British pound rose against most of its major counterparts with the exception of the CAD and AUD. UK GDP growth accelerated to +0.7% in 2Q, as expected, from +0.4% the previous quarter.

The Australian dollar was up against most of its major counterparts.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1030 -0.52 -8.83
GBP/USD 1,5594 0.23 0.11
USD/JPY 123,75 0.41 3.39
EUR/CHF 1,0648 -0.37 -11.47
EUR/JPY 136,4900 -0.10 -5.63
EUR/GBP 0,7079 -0.68 -8.85
AUD/NZD 1,0979 -0.25 4.77
AUD/JPY 90,5110 1.03 -7.40
EUR/AUD 1,5081 -1.13 1.84
USD/CAD 1,3020 -0.14 12.03
USD/CHF 0,9645 0.16 -3.01
AUD/USD 0,7314 0.62 -10.53
NZD/USD 0,6661 0.86 -14.57

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/JPY – further advance
The pair has rebounded above the upper boundary of an Ascending Triangle. Moreover, the ascending 200-day moving average is coming in support and the daily RSI stands above its neutrality area. Therefore, as long as 120 holds as a support (former horizontal resistance now acting as a support and rising trend line in place since late 2014), targets on the upside are set at 126 (horizontal resistance) and 127.7 (theoretical target of the triangle). A third target is set at 132. Only a break below 120 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target at 118 (horizontal support) and 115.50 (December bottom) in extension.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: key resistance at 0.734.
Pivot 0.7340
Our preference Short positions below 0.734 with targets @ 0.7255 & 0.723 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.734 look for further upside with 0.738 & 0.7415 as targets.
Comment As long as 0.734 is resistance, likely decline to 0.7255.

The information contained in this publication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Any opinion offered herein reflects TRADING CENTRAL current judgment and may change without notice. Users acknowledge and agree to the fact that, by its very nature, any investment in shares, stock options and similar and assimilated products is characterised by a certain degree of uncertainty and that, consequently, any investment of this nature involves risks for which the user is solely responsible and liable. 

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