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Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

July 31, 2015

Market Comment

Australia
The S&P/ASX 200 index was up 0.81% or 45.366pts to 5669.52 (day range: 5676.5 – 5633.3) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5584) and above its 50d MA (@ 5594). 68% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 60% the previous session) and 50% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 47%).Australia’s building approvals rose 8.6% YoY in June vs +18.3% in May, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was sharply higher against most of its major counterparts on Thursday. On the US economic data front, Initial Jobless claims rose to 267K in the week ended July 25 from 255k the previous week. Annualized GDP rose 2.3% in the 2Q vs an upwardly revised 0.6% advance the previous quarter.The Euro fell against most of its major counterparts. euro zone business climate indicator was up to 0.39 in July from 0.14 the month before. It was expected to be 0.19. German unemployment rate was flat at 6.4% in July, as expected. Separately, German consumer prices rose by 0.2% in July in first estimation, as anticipated, after a 0.1% decline in June.The Australian dollar was mixed, rising against the EUR and CAD while falling against the USD and GBP. 
Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0920 -0.58 -9.74
GBP/USD 1,5598 -0.03 0.13
USD/JPY 124,38 0.35 3.92
EUR/CHF 1,0586 -0.47 -11.89
EUR/JPY 135,8200 -0.22 -6.10
EUR/GBP 0,7001 -0.57 -9.86
AUD/NZD 1,1046 0.95 5.40
AUD/JPY 90,5110 0.11 -7.41
EUR/AUD 1,5006 -0.35 1.34
USD/CAD 1,3031 0.66 12.13
USD/CHF 0,9694 0.13 -2.52
AUD/USD 0,7277 -0.25 -10.98
NZD/USD 0,6588 -1.17 -15.51

Currency Updates:

Intraday Technical Strategy
AUD/USD Intraday: key resistance at 0.7325.
Pivot 0.7325
Our preference Short positions below 0.7325 with targets @ 0.7255 & 0.723 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7325 look for further upside with 0.735 & 0.738 as targets.
Comment As long as the resistance at 0.7325 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.7255 remains high.

 

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day
AUD/USD – further weakness
The pair has broken below the 0.7520 key support (horizontal level and year-to-date low). In addition, the 20 and 50-days moving averages crossed downward and the RSI below its neutrality area. As a consequence, further weakness is expected with a first target at 0.7255 (horizontal support and previous overlap) and a second one set at 0.6980 (horizontal support). A third target is set at 0.6865. Only a break above the strong horizontal resistance at 0.7805 would turn the outlook to bullish and favour a recovery towards 0.8165 (May top) at first and towards January top at 0.83 in extension.
Easy Forex Pty Ltd (AFSL 246566 ABN 73107184510) makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites and the information contained does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs. Easy-Forex recommends that you read the Regulation Page, The Product Disclosure Statement, the Terms and Conditions and the Financial Services Guide before making any decision concerning Easy-Forex’s products.
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