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Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

August 3, 2015

Market Comment

Australia
The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.52% or 29.641pts to 5699.16 (day range: 5699.5 – 5669.9) on Friday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5592) and above its 50d MA (@ 5594). 74% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 68% the previous session) and 57% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 50%).Australia’s PPI rose 1.1% YoY in 2Q vs +0.7% in 1Q, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar fell against most of its major counterparts with the exception of the CAD on Friday. On the US economic data front, Chicago Purchasing Manager rose to 54.70 in July from 49.40 the prior month while University of Michigan Consumer Final Index fell to 93.1 in July vs preliminary July reading of 93.3 and from 96.10 in June.

The Euro soared against most of its major counterparts. Euro zone unemployment rate was flat at 11.1% in June. It was expected to fall to 11%. Separately, euro zone consumer prices were up by 0.2% in July, as anticipated, and at the same pace than in June. German retail sales fell 2.3% in June after a 0.2% increase a month earlier (revised from +0.5%). Economists anticipated 0.3% rise. UK GfK consumer confidence index fell to 4 in July from 7 the month before. It was expected to be 5.

The Australian dollar rose against most of its major counterparts with the exception of the CHF and EUR.
Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1048 1.06 -8.68
GBP/USD 1,5640 0.24 0.40
USD/JPY 123,91 -0.19 3.53
EUR/CHF 1,0637 0.34 -11.50
EUR/JPY 136,8900 0.85 -5.39
EUR/GBP 0,7064 0.81 -9.05
AUD/NZD 1,1068 0.20 5.61
AUD/JPY 90,9160 0.45 -6.99
EUR/AUD 1,5057 0.45 1.67
USD/CAD 1,3021 0.14 12.04
USD/CHF 0,9628 -0.67 -3.19
AUD/USD 0,7337 0.60 -10.25
NZD/USD 0,6630 0.42 -14.97

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day
EUR/USD – the upside prevails
The pair is pulling back above the strong horizontal support at 1.0810 as the daily RSI lacks downward momentum. Then, as long as 1.0810 holds as a support, a rebound is likely with 1.1215 as a first target (July 10th top) and 1.15 in extension (previous top). A third target is set at 1.1730 (horizontal resistance). Only a break below 1.081 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.0450 (March low) and 1.02 (horizontal support and overlap).

Intraday Technical Strategy
AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot 0.7260
Our preference Long positions above 0.726 with targets @ 0.738 & 0.7415 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.726 look for further downside with 0.723 & 0.721 as targets.
Comment Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

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