Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

August 6, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.42% or 23.925pts to 5673.98 (day range: 5700.6 – 5640) on Wednesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5619) and above its 50d MA (@ 5592). 67% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 66% the previous session) and 57% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 55%).

The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI) gained 2.9 points MoM to 54.1 in July, the highest level since February 2014. Key findings included: “The retail trade sub-sector expanded for a fifth month (up 1.8 points to 53.8), while wholesale trade (up 2.0 points to 50.4) expanded for the first time since November 2011. (…) The finance & insurance sub-sector added a seventh month of expansion (down 4.0 points to 65.0), while property & business services (up 9.6 points to 54.5) ended nine months of contraction. (…) All other sub-sectors contracted: health & community services (unchanged at 46.7 points); personal & recreation services (down 6.2 points to 46.5); communications (down 3.1 points to 38.9); and transport & storage (up 1 point to 39.1). Hospitality (up 7.3 points to 45.8) slowed its pace of decline.”

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was mixed against its major counterparts on Wednesday. On the US economic data front, MBA Mortgage Applications rose 4.7% last week from an increase of 0.8% in the week prior. ADP says the US added 185K new jobs in July compared to a revised 229K increase in June. US Trade balance widened to (-43.8B) in June from a revised (-40.90B) in May. The ISM Non-Manufacturing index rose the highest in a decade to 60.3 in July from 56 in June.

The Euro was higher against its major pairs except for the British Pound. In Europe, euro zone PMI composite was up to 53.9 in July in final estimation vs 53.7 in prior one. It was 54.2 the month earlier. UK PMI composite fell to 56.6 in July vs 57.4 in June and 56.9 expected.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against all of its major counterparts.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0902 0.19 -9.89
GBP/USD 1,5598 0.22 0.13
USD/JPY 124,88 0.40 4.33
EUR/CHF 1,0677 0.29 -11.12
EUR/JPY 136,1500 0.60 -5.89
EUR/GBP 0,6990 -0.04 -10.00
AUD/NZD 1,1304 0.16 7.87
AUD/JPY 91,8340 0.09 -6.06
EUR/AUD 1,4825 0.53 0.12
USD/CAD 1,3187 -0.04 13.48
USD/CHF 0,9794 0.10 -1.50
AUD/USD 0,7354 -0.35 -10.04
NZD/USD 0,6504 -0.52 -16.58

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/JPY – further advance
The pair has rebounded above the upper boundary of an Ascending Triangle. Moreover, the ascending 200-day moving average is coming in support and the daily RSI stands above its neutrality area. Therefore, as long as 120 holds as a support (former horizontal resistance now acting as a support and rising trend line in place since late 2014), targets on the upside are set at 126 (horizontal resistance) and 127.7 (theoretical target of the triangle). A third target is set at 132. Only a break below 120 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target at 118 (horizontal support) and 115.50 (December bottom) in extension.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.
Pivot 0.7405
Our preference Short positions below 0.7405 with targets @ 0.733 & 0.73 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7405 look for further upside with 0.743 & 0.746 as targets.
Comment The RSI is badly directed.

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