Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

August 7, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 1.13% or 63.874pts to 5610.1 (day range: 5673.9 – 5588.4) on Thursday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5626) and above its 50d MA (@ 5590). 54% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 67% the previous session) and 47% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 57%).

Australia’s jobless rate rose to 6.3% in July (vs 6.1% expected) from 6.1% in June, according to the government.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was mixed against its major counterparts on Thursday. On the US economic data front, Initial jobless claims increased slightly to 270K for the week ending August 1 compared to 267K in the week prior. (272K estimate). Continuing claims came in at 2255K for the week ending July 25 vs 2269 revised the week prior. (2249K estimate).

The Euro was stronger against its major pairs except for the Canadian and New Zealand Dollar. In Europe, German factory orders were up by 0.2% in June after a 0.3% slid the previous month. Economists anticipated a 0.3% increase. Bank of England signaled that it could start to increase moderately interest rates in 2016. Separately, according to Halifax, UK house prices fell by 0.6% in July, the first slid in five months, after being up by 1.6% in June.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against all of its major counterparts.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0929 0.21 -9.66
GBP/USD 1,5518 -0.54 -0.38
USD/JPY 124,72 -0.12 4.20
EUR/CHF 1,0717 0.36 -10.79
EUR/JPY 136,3100 0.08 -5.78
EUR/GBP 0,7043 0.76 -9.32
AUD/NZD 1,1206 -0.80 6.93
AUD/JPY 91,6150 -0.25 -6.28
EUR/AUD 1,4879 0.36 0.48
USD/CAD 1,3109 -0.52 12.81
USD/CHF 0,9806 0.15 -1.38
AUD/USD 0,7345 -0.15 -10.15
NZD/USD 0,6554 0.66 -15.94

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

NZD/USD – further weakness
The pair remains in a long-term down trend. The declining 20-day moving average is actively capping the pair and is offering strong resistance. The daily RSI stands below its neutrality area. As a consequence, further weakness is expected with 0.62 as a first target (2009 overlap area) and 0.5840 in extension. A third target is set at April 2009 bottom at 0.55. Only a break above the strong horizontal resistance and overlap at 0.72 would invalidate this scenario and allow a limited recovery towards the overlap at 0.7570 and even April top at 0.7750.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.
Pivot 0.7365
Our preference Short positions below 0.7365 with targets @ 0.73 & 0.726 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7365 look for further upside with 0.739 & 0.743 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks upward momentum.

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