Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

August 13, 2015
Market Comment
Australia
The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.67% or 91.146pts to 5382.08 (day range: 5480.5 – 5364.7) on Wednesday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5609) and below its 50d MA (@ 5569). 18% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 32% the previous session) and 33% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 43%).

Australia’s seasonally adjusted consumer confidence rose 7.8% MoM in August vs -3.2% in July, according to the Westpac Banking Corp. and the Melbourne Institute.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was under pressure against all its major counterparts on Wednesday. On the economic data front, MBA Mortgage applications rose 0.1% for the week ending August 7 compared to an increase of 4.7% the week before. U.S. July Budget deficit came in at 149.2B compared to a 94.6B deficit in June.

The Euro strengthened against its major pairs. In Europe, Industrial production fell 0.4% in June after a 0.2% decrease the month before (revised from -0.4%). Economists anticipated a 0.1% drop. UK unemployment rate was flat at 5.6% during the April-June period, as expected.

The Australian dollar was mixed against all of its major counterparts.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1171 1.17 -7.66
GBP/USD 1,5624 0.33 0.30
USD/JPY 124,17 -0.76 3.74
EUR/CHF 1,0892 -0.19 -9.33
EUR/JPY 138,7100 0.40 -4.12
EUR/GBP 0,7150 0.84 -7.94
AUD/NZD 1,1152 -0.18 6.42
AUD/JPY 91,6800 0.31 -6.22
EUR/AUD 1,5130 0.08 2.18
USD/CAD 1,2977 -1.05 11.67
USD/CHF 0,9750 -1.34 -1.95
AUD/USD 0,7384 1.10 -9.68
NZD/USD 0,6620 1.29 -15.10

Currency Updates:

GBP/USD – the upside prevails
The pair has rebounded above the strong support at 1.5170 as the daily RSI is well directed. Thus, as long as 1.5170 holds on the downside (horizontal support and overlap), further advance is likely with 1.5935 as a first target (June top) and 1.6190 in extension (61.8% retracement of the July 2014 to April down leg). A third target is set at 1.6525 (last September top). Only a break below 1.5170 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.4560 (horizontal support and April low) and a second one set at 1.4230 (May 2010 low).
AUD/USD Intraday: rebound.
Pivot 0.7275
Our preference Long positions above 0.7275 with targets @ 0.739 & 0.743 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7275 look for further downside with 0.721 & 0.7165 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.

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