Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

August 18, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.21% or 11.119pts to 5367.66 (day range: 5397 – 5360.1) on Monday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5563) and below its 50d MA (@ 5560). 23% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 19% the previous session) and 35% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 34%).

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was mixed against its major counterparts on Monday. On the economic data front, The US Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to (-14.92) in August, the lowest level since April 2009, compared to a positive 3.86 in July.

The Euro was under pressure against all its major pairs. In Europe, euro zone trade balance excess increased to E21.9B in June from E21.3B in May. It was expected to be E23.1B. According to Rightmove UK house prices fell by 0.8% in August after being up by 0.1% the month before.

The Australian dollar was higher against its major pairs except for the Canadian and New Zealand Dollar

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1078 -0.28 -8.43
GBP/USD 1,5587 -0.35 0.06
USD/JPY 124,41 0.07 3.94
EUR/CHF 1,0831 -0.12 -9.85
EUR/JPY 137,8300 -0.22 -4.73
EUR/GBP 0,7107 0.06 -8.49
AUD/NZD 1,1225 -0.76 7.11
AUD/JPY 91,7580 0.02 -6.14
EUR/AUD 1,5020 -0.23 1.43
USD/CAD 1,3088 -0.08 12.62
USD/CHF 0,9777 0.15 -1.66
AUD/USD 0,7375 -0.05 -9.79
NZD/USD 0,6570 0.35 -15.74

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

NZD/USD – under pressure
The pair remains in a long-term down trend. The declining 20-day moving average is actively capping the pair and is offering strong resistance. The daily RSI stands below its neutrality area. As a consequence, further weakness is expected with 0.62 as a first target (2009 overlap area) and 0.5840 in extension. A third target is set at April 2009 bottom at 0.55. Only a break above the strong horizontal resistance and overlap at 0.72 would invalidate this scenario and allow a limited recovery towards the overlap at 0.7570 and even April top at 0.7750.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.
Pivot 0.7320
Our preference Long positions above 0.732 with targets @ 0.741 & 0.744 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.732 look for further downside with 0.727 & 0.7215 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.

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