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Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

August 21, 2015

Market Comment

Australia
The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.7% or 91.607pts to 5288.58 (day range: 5361.5 – 5276.2) on Thursday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5516) and below its 50d MA (@ 5549). 19% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 25% the previous session) and 28% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 36%).

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was mixed against its major counterparts on Thursday. On the economic data front, US Initial jobless claims increased to 274K for the week ending August 15 from a revised 273K the week before. Continuing claims came in at 2254K for the week ending August 8 from a revised 2278K in the week before (2265K estimate). US Existing home sales increased 2% to a 5.59M annualized rate last month from a revised 5.48M pace in June. The U.S. July index of leading economic indicators fell 0.2% compared to an increase of 0.6% in June.The Euro strengthened against all its major pairs. In Europe, Germany PPI index was flat in July, as expected, after being down by 0.1% in June. UK retail sales were up by 0.4% in July, as anticipated, after a 0.3% drop the month before (-0.2% expected).

The Australian dollar was under pressure against its major pairs.
Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1241 1.09 -7.08
GBP/USD 1,5694 0.09 0.75
USD/JPY 123,36 -0.36 3.07
EUR/CHF 1,0782 0.40 -10.25
EUR/JPY 138,6700 0.73 -4.15
EUR/GBP 0,7163 1.00 -7.77
AUD/NZD 1,1069 -0.54 5.62
AUD/JPY 90,5570 -0.46 -7.37
EUR/AUD 1,5314 1.19 3.42
USD/CAD 1,3087 -0.31 12.62
USD/CHF 0,9591 -0.67 -3.54
AUD/USD 0,7341 -0.10 -10.20
NZD/USD 0,6631 0.45 -14.95

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day
GBPUSD – the upside prevails
The pair has rebounded above the strong support at 1.5170 as the daily RSI is well directed above its neutrality area. Thus, as long as 1.5170 holds on the downside (horizontal support and overlap), further advance is likely with 1.5935 as a first target (June top) and 1.6190 in extension (61.8% retracement of the July 2014 to April down leg). A third target is set at 1.6525 (last September top). Only a break below 1.5170 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.4560 (horizontal support and April low) and a second one set at 1.4230 (May 2010 low).

Intraday Technical Strategy
AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.
Pivot 0.7360
Our preference Short positions below 0.736 with targets @ 0.728 & 0.7255 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.736 look for further upside with 0.739 & 0.741 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

 

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Easy Forex Pty Ltd (AFSL 246566 ABN 73107184510) makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites and the information contained does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs. Easy-Forex recommends that you read the Regulation Page, The Product Disclosure Statement, the Terms and Conditions and the Financial Services Guide before making any decision concerning Easy-Forex’s products.

 

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