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Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

August 24, 2015

Market Comment

Australia
The S&P/ASX 200 index decreased 1.4% or 73.984pts to 5214.6 (day range: 5277.4 – 5171.5) on Friday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5498) and below its 50d MA (@ 5543). 18% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 19% the previous session) and 24% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 28%). Appx. 18% of the stocks are ‘oversold’ based on the RSI14 indicator.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was mixed against its major counterparts on Friday. On the economic data front, Markit US Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.9 in August from 53.8 in July.The Euro strengthened against all its major pairs. In Europe, euro-zone PMI composite index was up to 54.1 in August, in first estimation from 53.9 in July. It was expected to be 53.7. Euro-zone consumer confidence index increased to -6.8 in August in first reading from -7.1 a month earlier. Economists anticipated -6.9. Germany GfK consumer confidence index fell to 9.9 for September from 10.1 for August. It was expected to be 10.1. UK recorded a budget surplus of £1.3B in July. June budget deficit was £100M.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against its major pairs except for the Canadian Dollar.
Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1365 1.09 -6.06
GBP/USD 1,5702 0.08 0.80
USD/JPY 122,18 -0.99 2.09
EUR/CHF 1,0781 0.04 -10.26
EUR/JPY 138,8500 0.10 -4.01
EUR/GBP 0,7239 1.04 -6.80
AUD/NZD 1,0953 -1.03 4.51
AUD/JPY 89,5350 -1.15 -8.42
EUR/AUD 1,5508 1.23 4.73
USD/CAD 1,3162 0.59 13.25
USD/CHF 0,9485 -1.05 -4.61
AUD/USD 0,7328 -0.12 -10.36
NZD/USD 0,6691 0.90 -14.18

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day
USD/JPY – pulling back
The pair is pulling back on the lower boundary of continuation triangle pattern. Moreover, the ascending 200-day moving average is coming in support and the daily RSI is approaching its oversold area. Therefore, as long as 120 holds as a support (former horizontal resistance now acting as a support and rising trend line in place since late 2014), targets on the upside are set at 126 (horizontal resistance) and 127.7 (theoretical target of the triangle). A third target is set at 132. Only a break below 120 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target at 118 (horizontal support) and 115.50 (December bottom) in extension.

Intraday Technical Strategy
AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot 0.7280
Our preference Long positions above 0.728 with targets @ 0.736 & 0.739 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.728 look for further downside with 0.7255 & 0.723 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.
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