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Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

August 27, 2015

Market Comment

Australia
The S&P/ASX 200 index increased 0.69% or 35.523pts to 5172.78 (day range: 5179.2 – 5051.4) on Wednesday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5424) and below its 50d MA (@ 5515). 17% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 14% the previous session) and 19% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 21%). Trading volume on the index was high, 93.5% above the 3 months average.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar rose against its major counterparts with the exception of the CAD on Wednesday. On the US economic data front, MBA Mortgage applications rose 0.2% last week compared to a 3.6% increase the week before. Durable goods orders gained 2% in July above the (-0.4%) decrease expected.The Euro fell against its major counterparts with the exception of the GBP. No major economic news was reported in Europe on Wednesday.

The Australian dollar was up against its major pairs except for the CAD.
Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1324 -1.68 -6.40
GBP/USD 1,5467 -1.40 -0.71
USD/JPY 119,92 0.88 0.19
EUR/CHF 1,0803 -0.13 -10.08
EUR/JPY 135,8000 -0.78 -6.13
EUR/GBP 0,7322 -0.29 -5.73
AUD/NZD 1,1044 0.29 5.39
AUD/JPY 85,2460 0.58 -12.80
EUR/AUD 1,5930 -1.40 7.57
USD/CAD 1,3332 -0.05 14.72
USD/CHF 0,9539 1.57 -4.06
AUD/USD 0,7109 -0.29 -13.04
NZD/USD 0,6436 -0.59 -17.46

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/RUB – further advance
The pair remains on the upside as it remains supported by the moving averages. The rising daily RSI, supported by a rising trend line, adds pressure to the upside. Then, as long as 52.30 holds as a support, further advance is likely with 71.80 as a first target (January top) and 79.35 in extension (December 2014 top). A third target is set at 83.25 (Fibonacci projection). Alternatively, a break below 52.3 would call for another test of the 48.5 strong support base. A break below this threshold would lead to a drop towards the next support at 41.
 

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: key resistance at 0.719.
Pivot 0.7190
Our preference Short positions below 0.719 with targets @ 0.704 & 0.7 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.719 look for further upside with 0.725 & 0.7285 as targets.
Comment As long as 0.719 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

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