Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

August 28, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index jumped 1.17% or 60.549pts to 5233.32 (day range: 5268.8 – 5188.7) on Thursday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5402) and below its 50d MA (@ 5510). 28% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 17% the previous session) and 27% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 19%). Trading volume on the index was high, 80.4% above the 3 months average.Australia’s private capital expenditure dropped 4.0% QoQ in 2Q vs -4.7% in 1Q, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was mixed against its major counterparts on Thursday. On the US economic data front, 2Q US GDP increased 3.7% compared to an increase of $2.3% in the previous quarter. Initial jobless claims fell to 271K for the week ending August 22 vs 277K the week before. (274K estimate). Continuing claims were at 2269K for the week ending August 15 compared to a revised 2256K the week before. Pending home sales increased 0.5%MoM in July compared to a revised decline of 1.7% in June.The Euro declined against its major counterparts with the exception of the CHF and JPY. In Europe, euro M3 money supply growth was 5.3% in July YoY from +4.9% the month before. German import prices index fell by 0.7% in July after a 0.5% decline in June. According to Nationwide, UK house prices increased by 0.3% in August after a 0.4% gain in July.

The Australian dollar was stronger against its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1245 -0.61 -7.05
GBP/USD 1,5414 -0.32 -1.05
USD/JPY 120,99 0.88 1.09
EUR/CHF 1,0858 0.51 -9.62
EUR/JPY 136,0600 0.26 -5.96
EUR/GBP 0,7295 -0.30 -6.07
AUD/NZD 1,1086 0.22 5.79
AUD/JPY 86,6620 1.46 -11.35
EUR/AUD 1,5701 -1.15 6.03
USD/CAD 1,3215 -0.58 13.72
USD/CHF 0,9656 1.13 -2.90
AUD/USD 0,7162 0.56 -12.39
NZD/USD 0,6461 0.34 -17.13

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

GBP/USD – pulling back

The pair is facing a pull back but should post a rebound above the strong support at 1.5170 as the daily RSI lacks downward momentum Thus, as long as 1.5170 holds on the downside (horizontal support and overlap), further advance is likely with 1.5935 as a first target (June top) and 1.6190 in extension (61.8% retracement of the July 2014 to April down leg). A third target is set at 1.6525 (last September top). Only a break below 1.5170 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.4850 (horizontal support) and a second one set at 1.4560 (horizontal support and April low).
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Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: rebound.

Pivot 0.7095
Our preference Long positions above 0.7095 with targets @ 0.719 & 0.725 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7095 look for further downside with 0.7065 & 0.704 as targets.
Comment The RSI is well directed. A bullish inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern has completed.

 

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