Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

September 1, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 1.07% or 56.583pts to 5206.98 (day range: 5263.6 – 5159.4) on Monday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5357) and below its 50d MA (@ 5495). 40% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 37% the previous session) and 29% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 31%). Trading volume on the index was high, 38.1% above the 3 months averageAustralia’s HIA new home sales declined 1.8% MoM in July vs +0.5% in June, according to the Housing Industry Association.

Australia’s private sector credit rose 0.6% MoM in July (vs +0.5% expected, +0.4% in June), according to the Reserve Bank of Australia. On a YoY basis, it rose 6.1% in July (vs +5.9% both expected and in June).

New Zealand’s ANZ business confidence was -29.1 in August vs -15.3 in July, released by Australia & New Zealand Banking Group.

New Zealand: The number of home-building approvals surged 24% YoY to a 10-year high of 2,824 in July, according to the government.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar rose against its major counterparts on Monday with the exception of EUR and JPY. On the US economic data front, The Purchasing Manager Index fell to 54.4 in August from 54.7 the prior month and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook dropped to -15.8 in August from -4.6 the prior month.The Euro was up against all its major counterparts with the exception of the JPY. In Europe, euro zone consumer prices were up by 0.2% in August on a yearly basis (+0.1% expected), at the same pace than in July. German retail sales increased 1.4% in July after a 1% decline the month before (revised from -2.3%). Economists anticipated a 1.1% gain.

The Australian dollar fell against its major pairs with the exception of the NZD.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1194 0.08 -7.47
GBP/USD 1,5364 -0.18 -1.37
USD/JPY 121,30 -0.34 1.35
EUR/CHF 1,0841 0.75 -9.73
EUR/JPY 135,7700 -0.24 -6.12
EUR/GBP 0,7286 0.27 -6.19
AUD/NZD 1,1185 0.97 6.73
AUD/JPY 86,2390 -1.23 -11.84
EUR/AUD 1,5744 0.96 6.33
USD/CAD 1,3240 0.26 13.91
USD/CHF 0,9685 0.60 -2.61
AUD/USD 0,7110 -0.88 -13.03
NZD/USD 0,6356 -1.67 -18.48
Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day
EUR/USD – the upside prevails
The pair has broken above the upper boundary of triangle pattern and is posting a pull back ahead of a rebound. Then, as long as 1.0810 holds as a strong support, further advance is likely with 1.1730 as a first target (horizontal resistance) and 1.2050 in extension (overlap, July 2012 bottom). A third target is set at 1.2250 (strong horizontal resistance). Only a break below 1.081 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.0450 (March low) and 1.02 (horizontal support and overlap).
 

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: key resistance at 0.7175.

Pivot 0.7175
Our preference Short positions below 0.7175 with targets @ 0.7065 & 0.704 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7175 look for further upside with 0.7205 & 0.725 as targets.
Comment The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

 

 

 

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