Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

September 3, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index was flat on Wednesday.Australia’s GDP rose 0.2% QoQ in 2Q (vs +0.4% expected, +0.9% in 1Q), according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. On a YoY basis, it rose 2% in 2Q (vs +2.2% expected, +2.5% in 1Q)

New Zealand’s ANZ commodity price declined 5.2% in August vs -5.5% in July, released by ANZ Bank New Zealand.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was mixed against its major counterparts on Wednesday. On the US economic data front, MBA Mortgage applications rose 11.3% for the week ending August 28 compared to a gain of 0.2% the week before. ADP reported U.S. firms added 190K jobs in August compared to a revised 177K in July below the 200K estimate. Factory orders increased 0.4% in July compared to a revised 2.2% increase in June (0.9% estimate).

 

The Euro was under pressure against all its major counterparts with the exception of the CHF. In Europe, PPI index fell by 0.1% in July, as expected, after being flat in June (revised from -0.1%). UK PMI construction index was up to 57.3 in August vs 57.1 a month earlier. Yet, economists anticipated 57.5.

The Australian dollar pushed higher against its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1230 -0.75 -7.17
GBP/USD 1,5299 -0.03 -1.78
USD/JPY 120,29 0.77 0.51
EUR/CHF 1,0887 0.36 -9.37
EUR/JPY 135,0900 0.02 -6.62
EUR/GBP 0,7340 -0.71 -5.49
AUD/NZD 1,1085 0.00 5.78
AUD/JPY 84,6310 1.02 -13.44
EUR/AUD 1,5962 -0.99 7.79
USD/CAD 1,3276 0.13 14.25
USD/CHF 0,9695 1.11 -2.50
AUD/USD 0,7035 0.23 -13.95
NZD/USD 0,6345 0.11 -18.62

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/JPY – under pressure
The pair has broken below the lower boundary of the triangle pattern and then faced a pull back ahead of further weakness below the moving averages. Moreover, the daily RSI is badly directed and not oversold. Then, further weakness is likely with 115.50 as a first target (December bottom) and 113.40 in extension (horizontal support). A third target is set at 110 (strong horizontal support and overlap). Only a rebound above 126 (June top)à would call for a bullish trend reversal with 127.70 as a first alternative target and 132 in extension.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot 0.7065
Our preference Short positions below 0.7065 with targets @ 0.698 & 0.695 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7065 look for further upside with 0.7095 & 0.712 as targets.
Comment As long as 0.7065 is resistance, likely decline to 0.698.

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