Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

September 7, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index edged up 0.25% or 12.804pts to 5040.6 (day range: 5069.2 – 4995.6) on Friday.The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5247) and below its 50d MA (@ 5449). 18% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 16% the previous session) and 18% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 16%).

 

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was higher against its major counterparts with the exception of the CHF and JPY on Friday.On the US economic data front, US Nonfarm payrolls increased 173K in August and the US Jobless rate dropped to 5.1%, the lowest since April 2008.

The gain in payrolls was less than the 217K forecast however June and July payrolls were stronger than previously recorded.

Manufacturing payrolls decreased 17K in August compared to a revised increase of 12K in July (5k estimate).

The Euro was higher against all its major counterparts except for the JPY. In Europe, German factory orders declined by 1.4% in JUly (-0.6% expected) after a 1.8% rise the month before (revised from +2%).

The Australian dollar was under pressure against its major pairs except for the NZD.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1152 0.26 -7.82
GBP/USD 1,5186 -0.47 -2.51
USD/JPY 119,04 -0.85 -0.54
EUR/CHF 1,0844 0.16 -9.75
EUR/JPY 132,7600 -0.61 -8.25
EUR/GBP 0,7343 0.73 -5.45
AUD/NZD 1,1003 0.35 5.00
AUD/JPY 82,3450 -2.26 -15.76
EUR/AUD 1,6123 1.69 8.87
USD/CAD 1,3264 0.64 14.12
USD/CHF 0,9717 -0.17 -2.27
AUD/USD 0,6917 -1.43 -15.39
NZD/USD 0,6287 -1.75 -19.37

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

NZD/USD – further weakness
The pair remains in a long-term down trend.

The declining 20-day moving average is actively capping the pair and is offering strong resistance.

The daily RSI stands below its neutrality area.

As a consequence, further weakness is expected with 0.62 as a first target (2009 overlap area) and 0.5840 in extension.

A third target is set at April 2009 bottom at 0.55.

Only a break above the horizontal resistance at 0.6980 would invalidate this scenario and allow a limited recovery towards the strong horizontal resistance and overlap at 0.72 and towards the resistance at 0.7570 in extension.

 

 TC 7Sep NZDUSD

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.
 TC 7Sep AUDUSD
Pivot 0.7020
Our preference Short positions below 0.702 with targets @ 0.688 & 0.685 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.702 look for further upside with 0.7065 & 0.7095 as targets.
Comment The RSI is badly directed.

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