Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

September 10, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index increased 2.07% or 105.878pts to 5221.13 (day range: 5221.13 – 5115.2) on Wednesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5197) and below its 50d MA (@ 5429). 50% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 31% the previous session) and 34% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 24%).

Australia: The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence Index fell 5.6% MoM in September (vs +7.8% in August).

Australia’s home loans rose 0.3% MoM in July vs +4.8% in June, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was mixed against its major counterparts on Wednesday. On the economic data front, MBA Mortgage applications index fell -6.2% for the week ending Sept 4 compared to an increase of 11.3% in the week prior.

The Euro was weaker against all its major counterparts except for the CAD, GBP and JPY. In Europe, UK industrial production slid 0.4% in July, at the same pace than in June. Economists anticipated a 0.1% increase. Separately, UK trade balance deficit climbed to £3.37B in July from £0.81M the month before.

The Australian dollar was higher against most of its major pairs except for the CHF and NZD.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1208 0.01 -7.36
GBP/USD 1,5365 -0.02 -1.36
USD/JPY 120,51 -0.01 0.69
EUR/CHF 1,0931 -0.03 -9.01
EUR/JPY 135,0600 -0.01 -6.63
EUR/GBP 0,7294 0.04 -6.08
AUD/NZD 1,1106 1.24 5.99
AUD/JPY 84,2450 -0.39 -13.80
EUR/AUD 1,6033 0.40 8.27
USD/CAD 1,3247 -0.08 13.99
USD/CHF 0,9753 -0.03 -1.91
AUD/USD 0,6991 -0.38 -14.48
NZD/USD 0,6293 -1.61 -19.29

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/JPY – under pressure
The pair has broken below the lower boundary of the triangle pattern and then faced a pull back ahead of further weakness below the moving averages. Moreover, the daily RSI stands below its neutrality area. Then, further weakness is likely with 115.50 as a first target (December bottom) and 113.40 in extension (horizontal support). A third target is set at 110 (strong horizontal support and overlap). Only a rebound above 126 (June top)à would call for a bullish trend reversal with 127.70 as a first alternative target and 132 in extension.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: turning down.
Pivot 0.7040
Our preference Short positions below 0.704 with targets @ 0.695 & 0.692 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.704 look for further upside with 0.7065 & 0.71 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.

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