Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

September 18, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index gained 0.94% or 47.959pts to 5146.82 (day range: 5194 – 5098.9) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5119) and below its 50d MA (@ 5376). 52% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 41% the previous session) and 31% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 28%).

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was under pressure against its major counterparts except for the HKD on Thursday. On the economic data front, US 2Q current account Deficit came in at 109.7B compared to 113.3B last quarter (-111.5B estimate). Housing starts fell to 1126K in Aug from 1206K in July (1160K estimate). Building permits increased to 1170K in Aug from 1119K in July (1159K estimate). Initial Jobless Claims declined to the lowest level in 2 months to 264K for the week ending Sept 12 from 275K the week before (275K estimate). The federal Funds Target Rate remained at 0.00% to 0.25% (unchanged) citing inflation continues to run below objective, due to declines in energy prices and prices of non-energy imports. The FED stated it will raise rates when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and when it is ” reasonably confident” inflation will move back to its 2% Target.

The Euro was higher against its major counterparts. In Europe, eurozone construction output grew 1% in July from June, when it fell 1.2%. UK retail sales rose by 0.2% in August, helped by sales of clothing, particularly school uniforms.

The Australian dollar was mixed against all its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1421 1.16 -5.60
GBP/USD 1,5584 0.59 0.04
USD/JPY 119,95 -0.53 0.20
EUR/CHF 1,0971 0.02 -8.69
EUR/JPY 137,0100 0.63 -5.30
EUR/GBP 0,7330 0.59 -5.62
AUD/NZD 1,1294 -0.07 7.76
AUD/JPY 86,0570 -0.89 -12.04
EUR/AUD 1,5918 1.48 7.50
USD/CAD 1,3178 0.03 13.37
USD/CHF 0,9604 -1.14 -3.45
AUD/USD 0,7175 -0.31 -12.23
NZD/USD 0,6353 -0.22 -18.52

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

AUD/NZD – target at 1.176
The pair has broken above a Descending Triangle: a bullish continuation pattern calling for a rise towards 1.176. The pattern started at July top at 1.143 and its upper boundary has been tested 5 times before being bypassed. In addition, the daily RSI has broken above a declining trend line in place since July top. As a consequence, above 1.09, the Triangle support, further advance is expected with targets standing at 1.143: July top, 1.158: 2013 2nd semester key resistance and finally 1.176: the pattern theoretical target. Alternatively, a break below 1.09 would reverse the bullish mood and trigger a correction towards 1.055 and 1.022.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.
Pivot 0.7139
Our preference Long positions above 0.7139 with targets @ 0.7225 & 0.7265 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7139 look for further downside with 0.711 & 0.708 as targets.
Comment Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

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