Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

September 21, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.46% or 23.682pts to 5170.5 (day range: 5195 – 5093.2) on Friday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5117) and below its 50d MA (@ 5370). 61% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 52% the previous session) and 33% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 31%).

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was mixed against its major counterparts on Friday. On the economic data front, Leading indicators in the US increased for the fifth month out of the last six rising 0.1% in August compared to zero increase in July.

The Euro was under pressure against its major counterparts. In Europe, the eurozone current-account balance showed a surplus of 22.6 billion euros in July versus 24.9 billion in June.

The Australian dollar was higher against all its major pairs with the exception of the NZD.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1299 -1.19 -6.60
GBP/USD 1,5522 -0.44 -0.35
USD/JPY 119,95 -0.04 0.23
EUR/CHF 1,0945 -0.24 -8.88
EUR/JPY 135,5400 -1.24 -6.31
EUR/GBP 0,7279 -0.76 -6.28
AUD/NZD 1,1231 -0.56 7.18
AUD/JPY 86,2050 0.13 -11.82
EUR/AUD 1,5720 -1.38 6.16
USD/CAD 1,3221 0.29 13.76
USD/CHF 0,9687 0.95 -2.58
AUD/USD 0,7188 0.21 -12.07
NZD/USD 0,6399 0.74 -17.93

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

EUR/USD – supported by a rising trend line
The pair is trading in the middle of a bullish channel in place since March and is now supported by a rising trend line in place since early August and currently around 1.124. In addition, the daily RSI has completed a pullback towards a former declining trend line in place since May. Then, as long as 1.0810 holds as a strong support, further advance is likely with 1.1730 as a first target (horizontal resistance) and 1.2050 in extension (overlap, July 2012 bottom). Only a break below 1.081 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.0450 (March low) and 1.02 (horizontal support and overlap).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: key resistance at 0.723.
Pivot 0.7230
Our preference Short positions below 0.723 with targets @ 0.716 & 0.714 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.723 look for further upside with 0.7275 & 0.73 as targets.
Comment The RSI is well directed.

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