Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

September 23, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index increased 0.74% or 37.308pts to 5103.55 (day range: 5125 – 5066.2) on Tuesday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5119) and below its 50d MA (@ 5352). 39% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 31% the previous session) and 30% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 24%).

Australia: The ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose to 114.5 in the week ended September 20 from 105.3 a week earlier.

Australia’s house price index rose 9.8% YoY in 2Q vs +6.9% in 1Q, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was higher against its major counterparts on Tuesday except for the JPY. On the economic data front, US FHFA home prices increased 0.6% in July from an increase of 0.2% in June above the 0.4% estimate. The Richmond fed manufacturing survey was down -0.5 in Sept from 0 in August. (2.0 estimate)

The Euro was under pressure against its major counterparts except for the GBP and AUD. In Europe, euro-zone consumer confidence index fell to -7.1 in September from -6.9 in August. Economists anticipated -7. UK budget deficit was £12.1B in August, the highest since 2012, from £0.7B a month earlier.

The Australian dollar was lower against its major pairs with the exception of the GBP.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1127 0.06 -8.03
GBP/USD 1,5364 -0.01 -1.37
USD/JPY 120,14 -0.01 0.37
EUR/CHF 1,0850 -0.01 -9.68
EUR/JPY 133,6700 0.00 -7.60
EUR/GBP 0,7243 -0.01 -6.74
AUD/NZD 1,1266 0.03 7.53
AUD/JPY 85,1730 -0.02 -12.88
EUR/AUD 1,5694 0.03 5.98
USD/CAD 1,3270 -0.03 14.19
USD/CHF 0,9752 0.02 -1.92
AUD/USD 0,7090 0.01 -13.27
NZD/USD 0,6293 -0.02 -19.29

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

GBP/JPY – under pressure
The pair is currently posting a pull back but remains capped by the 200-days moving average. Moreover, the daily RSI stands below its neutrality area. Then, as long as 191 holds as a resistance, targets on the downside are set at 179.40 at first (horizontal support) and at 175 in extension. A third target is set at 169.50 (strong horizontal support). Only a rebound above the resistance at 191 would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target is set at 196 (June top) and a second one set at 201.60 (Fibonacci projection).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.
Pivot 0.7160
Our preference Short positions below 0.716 with targets @ 0.703 & 0.701 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.716 look for further upside with 0.718 & 0.721 as targets.
Comment The RSI is badly directed.

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