Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

September 24, 2015
Market Comment
Australia
The S&P/ASX 200 index was down 2.07% or 105.42pts to 4998.13 (day range: 5103.6 – 4988.8) on Wednesday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5110) and below its 50d MA (@ 5340). 27% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 39% the previous session) and 24% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 30%).

Australia’s July leading index was 103.7 (vs 103.4 in June) and coincident index was 108.4 (vs 108.2 in June), according to the New York-based Conference Board.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was higher against its major counterparts on Wednesday except for the EUR. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications rose 13.9% for the week ending Sept 18 from -7% in the week prior. MARKIT US Manufacturing PMI came in at 53, above the 52.8 estimate.

The Euro was higher against its major counterparts. In Europe, euro-zone PMI composite index was down to 53.9 in September in first estimation from 54.3 in previous one. It was expected to be 54. French GDP was confirmed flat in 2Q, as anticipated.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1179 0.53 -7.60
GBP/USD 1,5243 -0.79 -2.14
USD/JPY 120,26 0.08 0.47
EUR/CHF 1,0953 0.93 -8.83
EUR/JPY 134,4300 0.56 -7.08
EUR/GBP 0,7334 1.25 -5.57
AUD/NZD 1,1201 -0.57 6.88
AUD/JPY 84,1360 -1.24 -13.94
EUR/AUD 1,5978 1.84 7.89
USD/CAD 1,3337 0.48 14.76
USD/CHF 0,9798 0.49 -1.46
AUD/USD 0,6996 -1.31 -14.42
NZD/USD 0,6246 -0.76 -19.89

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day
GBP/USD – pulling back
The pair has broken above the 50-days moving average and is currently posting a pull back. Thus, as long as 1.5070 holds on the downside (horizontal support and overlap), further advance is likely with 1.5825 as a first target (August top) and 1.6190 in extension (61.8% retracement of the July 2014 to April down leg). A third target is set at 1.6525 (last September top). Only a break below 1.5070 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.4850 (horizontal support) and a second one set at 1.4560 (horizontal support and April low).
Intraday Technical Strategy
AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot 0.7060
Our preference Short positions below 0.706 with targets @ 0.697 & 0.694 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.706 look for further upside with 0.709 & 0.712 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bearish.

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