Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

September 30, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 3.81% or 195.065pts to 4918.43 (day range: 5098.8 – 4918.4) on Tuesday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5077) and below its 50d MA (@ 5288). 30% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 61% the previous session) and 26% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 37%).

Australia: The ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index declined to 110.6 in the week ended September 27 from 114.5 a week earlier.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar fell against most of its major counterparts with the exception of the GBP and CAD on Tuesday. On the economic data front, the Consumer Confidence Index rose to 103 in September from a revised 101.3 in August.

The Euro was mixed, rising against the USD, GBP and CAD while falling against the JPY, CHF and NZD. In Europe, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index inched up to 103 in September, beating estimates. In Germany, the CPI dropped 0.2% from August, which was a bigger fall than the 0.1% expected.

The Australian dollar rose against most of its major pairs with the exception of the CHF and NZD, broadly unchanged against the EUR and JPY.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1251 0.06 -7.00
GBP/USD 1,5152 -0.15 -2.73
USD/JPY 119,79 -0.11 0.08
EUR/CHF 1,0936 -0.11 -8.97
EUR/JPY 134,7800 -0.05 -6.84
EUR/GBP 0,7426 0.21 -4.39
AUD/NZD 1,1005 -0.33 5.02
AUD/JPY 83,7570 -0.08 -14.33
EUR/AUD 1,6091 0.03 8.67
USD/CAD 1,3418 0.17 15.46
USD/CHF 0,9722 -0.17 -2.24
AUD/USD 0,6992 0.04 -14.47
NZD/USD 0,6353 0.38 -18.52

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/ZAR – further advance
The pair has rebounded above the strong horizontal support at 12.95 and remains supported by the rising 50-days moving average. Moreover, the daily RSI is well directed. Further advance is therefore likely towards the targets given by a Fibonacci projection at 14.80, 15.20 and at 16.10 in extension. Only a break below the strong support at 12.95 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at the previous overlap at 12.60 and a second one set at the horizontal support at 12.30.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: continuation of the rebound.
Pivot 0.6935
Our preference Long positions above 0.6935 with targets @ 0.7035 & 0.706 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.6935 look for further downside with 0.69 & 0.685 as targets.
Comment A support base at 0.6935 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

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