Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

October 1, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index jumped 2.1% or 103.2pts to 5021.63 (day range: 5022 – 4918.4) on Wednesday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5073) and below its 50d MA (@ 5276). 47% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 30% the previous session) and 30% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 26%).

Australia’s credit to business, consumers rose 6.3% YoY in August vs +6.1% in July, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Australia’s building approvals rose 5.1% YoY in August vs +17.9% in July, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was mixed against its major counterparts on Wednesday, under pressure against the CAD, AUD and NZD. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications fell 6.7% last week from an increase of 13.9% the week before. ADP payrolls increased 200K in Sept from 190K in August, above the 190K estimate. The Chicago business index came in at 48.7 in Sept from 54.4 in Aug.

The Euro was under pressure against all its major pairs. In Europe, euro zone consumer prices were down 0.1% YoY in September after being up 0.1% a month earlier. Economists anticipated prices to be flat. Separately, euro zone unemployment rate was flat at 11% in August. It was revised from 10.9% German retail sales fell 0.4% in August after increasing by 1.6% in July. Consensus expected a 0.2% rise. Separately, Germany unemployment rate was flat at 6.4% in September, as anticipated. UK GDP growth in 2Q was confirmed at +0.7%. It was +0.4% in 1Q.

The Australian dollar was higher against most of its major pairs with the exception of the NZD.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1179 -0.62 -7.60
GBP/USD 1,5124 -0.18 -2.91
USD/JPY 119,86 0.11 0.16
EUR/CHF 1,0891 -0.36 -9.33
EUR/JPY 133,9900 -0.52 -7.38
EUR/GBP 0,7392 -0.44 -4.82
AUD/NZD 1,0976 -0.26 4.73
AUD/JPY 84,1150 0.57 -13.96
EUR/AUD 1,5928 -1.10 7.57
USD/CAD 1,3342 -0.60 14.81
USD/CHF 0,9743 0.26 -2.02
AUD/USD 0,7018 0.47 -14.15
NZD/USD 0,6393 0.74 -18.01

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

GBP/JPY – under pressure

The pair has posted a pull back but remains capped by the 200-days moving average. Moreover, the daily RSI is badly directed below its neutrality area. Then, as long as 191 holds as a resistance, targets on the downside are set at 179.40 at first (horizontal support) and at 175 in extension. A third target is set at 169.50 (strong horizontal support). Only a rebound above the resistance at 191 would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at 196 (June top) and a second one set at 201.60 (Fibonacci projection).

 

 

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Pivot 0.6975
Our preference Long positions above 0.6975 with targets @ 0.706 & 0.709 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.6975 look for further downside with 0.6935 & 0.69 as targets.
Comment The RSI is well directed.

 

 

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