Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

October 8, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index gained 0.59% or 30.472pts to 5197.87 (day range: 5197.9 – 5136.3) on Wednesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5086) and below its 50d MA (@ 5231). 79% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 75% the previous session) and 49% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 48%).

Australian performance of construction index fell 1.9 points to 51.9 in Sep, according to the Australian Industry Group and Housing Industry Association.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was under pressure against all its major counterparts except for the CAD, EUR and CHF on Wednesday. On the economic data front, MBA Mortgage Applications soared 25.5% for the week ending Oct 2 compared to a decline of 6.7% the week before. The jump follows a new home-buyer protection clause implemented by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that required greater loan disclosure by mortgage lenders.

The Euro was lower against its major pairs with the exception of the CHF. In Europe, German industrial production fell 1.2% in August after being up by 1.2% in July (revised from +0.7%). Economists anticipated a 0.2% increase. UK industrial ^production increased 1% in August after a 0.3% decline a month earlier (revised from -0.4%). Economists anticipated a 0.3% increase.

The Australian dollar was higher against its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1236 -0.32 -7.13
GBP/USD 1,5319 0.60 -1.66
USD/JPY 120,00 -0.19 0.25
EUR/CHF 1,0940 0.38 -8.94
EUR/JPY 134,8300 -0.51 -6.80
EUR/GBP 0,7335 -0.91 -5.55
AUD/NZD 1,0899 -0.46 4.00
AUD/JPY 86,4760 0.38 -11.54
EUR/AUD 1,5591 -0.87 5.29
USD/CAD 1,3062 0.22 12.41
USD/CHF 0,9736 0.69 -2.08
AUD/USD 0,7207 0.57 -11.84
NZD/USD 0,6610 1.01 -15.22

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/JPY – shaping a triangle
The pair has broken below a rising trend line and is shaping a triangle pattern as the moving averages are turning down. Further weakness is therefore expected with 116 as a first target (horizontal support and August bottom) and 113.40 in extension (horizontal support). A third target is set at 110 (strong horizontal support and overlap). Only a rebound above the strong horizontal resistance at 122 would call for a trend reversal with a first alternative target set at 126 (June top) and 127.70 in extension.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot 0.7150
Our preference Long positions above 0.715 with targets @ 0.725 & 0.728 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.715 look for further downside with 0.7111 & 0.707 as targets.
Comment The RSI is well directed.

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