Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

October 12, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index jumped 1.33% or 69.289pts to 5279.69 (day range: 5284 – 5210.4) on Friday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5102) and above its 50d MA (@ 5213). 89% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 79% the previous session) and 64% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 49%).

Australia’s home loans rose 2.9% MoM in August vs -0.3% in July, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was weaker against all its major counterparts except for the GBP and JPY on Friday. On the economic data front, The US Import price index dropped 0.1% MoM in Sept from a revised drop of 1.6% in Aug. (-0.5% estimate). On a YoY basis, overall US import prices are down 10.7%.

The Euro was higher against its major pairs with the exception of the AUD. In Europe, French industrial production increased 1.6% in August after being down by 1.1% in July (revised from -0.8%). Economists anticipated a 0.6% rise. UK trade balance deficit narrowed to £3.268B in August from £4.4436B in July. Consensus expected a £2.15B deficit.

The Australian dollar was higher against all its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1358 0.73 -6.12
GBP/USD 1,5314 -0.22 -1.69
USD/JPY 120,23 0.25 0.46
EUR/CHF 1,0922 0.24 -9.09
EUR/JPY 136,5600 0.98 -5.60
EUR/GBP 0,7416 0.95 -4.50
AUD/NZD 1,0944 0.50 4.43
AUD/JPY 88,0820 1.19 -9.90
EUR/AUD 1,5503 -0.23 4.70
USD/CAD 1,2944 -0.56 11.39
USD/CHF 0,9616 -0.49 -3.30
AUD/USD 0,7326 0.91 -10.39
NZD/USD 0,6694 0.41 -14.15

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

GBP/USD – rebounding
The pair is rebounding above the strong support at 1.5070 as the daily RSI is reversing up above its oversold area and stands above its neutrality area. Thus, as long as 1.5070 holds on the downside (horizontal support and overlap), a rebound is likely with 1.5660 as a first target (September top) and 1.5940 in extension (June top and previous overlap). A third target is set at 1.6190 (61.8% retracement of the July 2014 to April down leg). Only a break below 1.5070 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.4850 (horizontal support) and a second one set at 1.4560 (horizontal support and April low).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot 0.7235
Our preference Long positions above 0.7235 with targets @ 0.738 & 0.7425 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7235 look for further downside with 0.72 & 0.716 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.

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