Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

October 14, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index was down 0.57% or 30.013pts to 5202.85 (day range: 5232.9 – 5173.3) on Tuesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5118) and above its 50d MA (@ 5194). 68% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 76% the previous session) and 57% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 59%).

Australia’s September business conditions was 9 (unchanged from the previous month) and business confidence was 5 (vs 1 in August), according to the National Australia Bank.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was Higher against all its major counterparts except for the CHF, EUR and JPY on Tuesday. On the economic data front, U.S. September small business optimism rose to 96.1 from 95.9 in August.

The Euro was higher against its major pairs with the exception of the CHF. German consumer prices fell 0.2% in final estimation in September, as expected. Zew investor confidence index fell to 55.2 in October from 67.5 a month earlier. It was anticipated to be 64. UK consumer prices decreased 0.1% in September after a 0.2% rise a month before. They were expected to be flat.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against all its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1383 0.22 -5.91
GBP/USD 1,5258 -0.59 -2.05
USD/JPY 119,75 -0.24 0.05
EUR/CHF 1,0899 -0.34 -9.28
EUR/JPY 136,3200 -0.02 -5.76
EUR/GBP 0,7461 0.81 -3.94
AUD/NZD 1,0926 -0.28 4.26
AUD/JPY 86,8220 -1.69 -11.13
EUR/AUD 1,5701 1.77 6.03
USD/CAD 1,3021 0.18 12.04
USD/CHF 0,9574 -0.56 -3.71
AUD/USD 0,7250 -1.52 -11.32
NZD/USD 0,6636 -1.22 -14.89

Currency Updates:

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot 0.7345
Our preference Short positions below 0.7345 with targets @ 0.7235 & 0.72 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7345 look for further upside with 0.738 & 0.741 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bearish.

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

EUR/GBP – further advance

The pair has broken above a falling wedge upper boundary and remains supported by he 50-days moving average. Moreover, the daily RSI is well directed above its neutrality area. Then, as long as 0.7110 holds as a support, further advance is likely with the previous overlap at 0.76 as a first target. A break above this threshold would call for further bounce towards the strong horizontal resistance at 0.7740 and towards January top at 0.7875 in extension. Only a break below 0.7110 would call for a trend reversal with a first alternative target set at July 17 bottom at 0.6930 and a second one set at 0.6815.

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