Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

October 16, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index was up 0.63% or 32.794pts to 5230.05 (day range: 5238.9 – 5197.3) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5127) and above its 50d MA (@ 5177). 75% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 68% the previous session) and 64% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 56%).

Australia’s jobless rate was 6.2% in September (unchanged from the previous month) and participation rate 64.9% (vs 65.0% in August), according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was mixed against all its major counterparts on Thursday. On the economic data front, Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 255K for the week ending Oct 10, the lowest level since 1973. The prior week reported a revised 262K. Continuing Jobless Claims lowered to 2158K for the week ending Oct 3 from a revised 2208K the week before. The Empire State Manufacturing index rose to (-11.36) in Oct from (-14.67) in Sept. (-8) was the estimate. CPI decreased 0.2% MoM in Sept from a decrease of 0.1% in Aug, in-line with expectations. The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index rose to (-4.5) in Oct from (-6.0) in Sept.

The Euro was under pressure against all its major pairs. No major economic news was reported in Europe.

The Australian dollar was higher against all its major pairs except for the NZD and CAD.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1384 -0.78 -5.90
GBP/USD 1,5486 0.06 -0.58
USD/JPY 118,88 0.04 -0.68
EUR/CHF 1,0823 -0.65 -9.91
EUR/JPY 135,3300 -0.76 -6.47
EUR/GBP 0,7350 -0.85 -5.36
AUD/NZD 1,0706 -0.41 2.15
AUD/JPY 87,1720 0.47 -10.84
EUR/AUD 1,5524 -1.23 4.83
USD/CAD 1,2850 -0.66 10.58
USD/CHF 0,9508 0.15 -4.37
AUD/USD 0,7333 0.45 -10.30
NZD/USD 0,6849 0.88 -12.16

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/JPY – under pressure

The pair has broken below the lower boundary of the triangle pattern and is shaping a triangle pattern. Moreover, the daily RSI stands below its neutrality area. Then, further weakness is likely with 116 as a first target (December bottom) and 113.40 in extension (horizontal support). A third target is set at 110 (strong horizontal support and overlap). Only a rebound above 122 (strong horizontal resistance) would call for a bullish trend reversal with 126 as a first alternative target (June top) and 127.70 in extension.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot 0.7260
Our preference Long positions above 0.726 with targets @ 0.738 & 0.74 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.726 look for further downside with 0.7237 & 0.72 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

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