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Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

October 28, 2015

Market Comment

Australia
The S&P/ASX 200 index was flat on Tuesday.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was higher against all of its major counterparts with the exception of the JPY on Tuesday. On the economic data front, durable goods orders decreased 1.2% MoM in Sept from a revised (-3%) in Aug. Consumer confidence in the U.S. fell to 97.6, a 3-month low compared to a revised 102.6 in Sept. Markit US composite PMI lowered to 54.5 in Oct from 55 in Sept. US Services PMI lowered to 54.4 from 55.1 in Sept, Finally, The Richmond Fed October manufacturing survey came in at (-1) from (-5) prior.

The Euro was mixed against its major pairs. In Europe, euro zone M3 money supply growth was flat at 4.9% in September vs +5% expected. UK GDP growth was +0.5% in 3Q from +0.7% in 2Q. Economists anticipated a 0.6% rise.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against all its major pairs except for the CAD.
Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1042 -0.14 -8.73
GBP/USD 1,5302 -0.33 -1.77
USD/JPY 120,40 -0.58 0.59
EUR/CHF 1,0896 0.21 -9.30
EUR/JPY 132,9500 -0.71 -8.09
EUR/GBP 0,7217 0.18 -7.08
AUD/NZD 1,0618 -0.55 1.32
AUD/JPY 86,6760 -1.24 -11.34
EUR/AUD 1,5338 0.54 3.57
USD/CAD 1,3267 0.86 14.15
USD/CHF 0,9867 0.32 -0.77
AUD/USD 0,7199 -0.69 -11.94
NZD/USD 0,6780 -0.12 -13.04
Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day
USD/CAD – rebound
The pair is rebounding above the strong horizontal support and overlap at 1.28. Moreover, the daily RSI has rebounded above its oversold area. Further advance is therefore likely with a first target set at 1.3450 (horizontal resistance and September top). A break above this threshold would open the way to further bounce towards 1.40 (May 2004 top). A third target is set at the previous overlap from january 2000 at 1.4320. Only a break below the strong horizontal support at 1.28 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.2560 and a second one set at the horizontal support at 1.24.

 

Intraday Technical Strategy
AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot 0.7265
Our preference Short positions below 0.7265 with targets @ 0.718 & 0.716 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7265 look for further upside with 0.7305 & 0.7345 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

 

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