Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

October 29, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 0.2% or 10.929pts to 5335.22 (day range: 5354.9 – 5319.4) on Wednesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5235) and above its 50d MA (@ 5158). 73% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 77% the previous session) and 78% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 77%).

Australia’s CPI rose 1.5% YoY in 3Q vs +1.5% in 2Q, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was higher against all of its major counterparts with the exception of the CAD on Wednesday. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications fell 3.5% last week compared to an increase of 11.8% the week before. The Fed kept the target rate at 0.25% saying ” The U.S. Economy has been expanding at a moderate pace”

The Euro was lower against most of its major pairs except for the NZD and AUD. In Europe, German import prices fell 0.7% in September after a 1.5% drop a month earlier. Economists anticipated a 0.2% slide. Separately, GfK consumer confidence index was down to 9.4 in November, as expected, from 9.6% in October.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against all its major pairs except for the NZD.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0918 -1.20 -9.75
GBP/USD 1,5258 -0.27 -2.05
USD/JPY 121,12 0.55 1.19
EUR/CHF 1,0863 -0.35 -9.59
EUR/JPY 132,2400 -0.63 -8.57
EUR/GBP 0,7157 -0.91 -7.85
AUD/NZD 1,0642 0.10 1.54
AUD/JPY 85,9230 -0.80 -12.08
EUR/AUD 1,5391 0.15 3.92
USD/CAD 1,3195 -0.54 13.55
USD/CHF 0,9947 0.80 0.04
AUD/USD 0,7094 -1.38 -13.22
NZD/USD 0,6665 -1.48 -14.52

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

GBP/USD – on the upside
The pair has rebounded above the strong support at 1.5070 and is currently posting a pull back. Thus, as long as 1.5070 holds on the downside (horizontal support and overlap), a rebound is likely with 1.5660 as a first target (September top) and 1.5940 in extension (June top and previous overlap). A third target is set at 1.6190 (61.8% retracement of the July 2014 to April down leg). Only a break below 1.5070 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.4850 (horizontal support) and a second one set at 1.4560 (horizontal support and April low).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot 0.7160
Our preference Short positions below 0.716 with targets @ 0.7065 & 0.705 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.716 look for further upside with 0.7206 & 0.723 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

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